A Study On The Credit Risk And Controllment Of Real Estate Development Loan In Commercial Banks

The real estate industry has been developed rapidly since the house allocation system was cancelled in Jul.1,1998, thus pushing forward the whole real estate industry into the market. However, it has been a challenge and a serious test for the loan of real estate development, for the way to gain the loan is still very single. The capital mainly comes from the bank and be lack of effective channels to detract the risks, which lie heavily on the banks.Since the financing actuality of real estate industry cannot be changed in such a short period, that how can the risks exist in the commercial banks loans involving the exploitation projects of real estate, how to analyze these risks, and how to keep away these risks by establishing controlling systems is the problem for the banks to face, and is a big question for the article to resolve.On the basis of former study, the article is going to analyze the credit risks of real estate development systematically through the way of academic and case analysis. In theory, the article mainly analyzes the relationship of developers of real estate industry and commercial banks by the way of game theory so as to open out the inner mechanism. Meanwhile, this article is going to set real estate development loan of some commercial bank in Jiangsu province for an example to prove the theory and demonstrate the feasibility.In the research, we can have four conclusions: First, For the inferior enterprises, whose cost (C ) are relative low, are eage to apply for the loans, it exsits ranks of the applicants and extremely disorder loan market of real estate, so that effective measures to separate the wheat from the chaff are needed for commercial banks; Second, when the punishment cost becomes enough more, high risks enterprises of real estate won't cheat loans out of the banks by the way of cheating, but gain loans from other capital markets by appropriate ways and in real risk class; Third, the value fo bank's mortgage isδ_w,δ—liquidity rate of the mortgage ((0<δ<1), the rate ofδdepends on the disposal market system and special use of the mortgage or not.δneeds to be adjusted any time according to the fluctuation of the market price in case of the uncovered risk of the mortagage. Four, In the short of effective supervision and management, enterprises in the real estate market will break the loan aggreement, alter the capital usage in private, hide the investment returns, or even occupy the banks' loans without debt service obligation.This passage integrates a material case of some large scale commercial bank in Jiangsu Province to discuss the credit risk control system, aiming at bringing forward the perfect suggestions on the aspects of the system, custmers subdivision, supervision of loan operation, software and hardware establishment.The innovation of the study lies on combining the large scale commercial bank practically and analyzing the credit risk thoroughly using the game theory, thereby benignantly probing into the credit risk controlling system of real estate development.The quantitative analysis of credit risk of real estate development hasn't been broken through in this article for external conditions and personal research ability, and the relationship of commercial banks and real estate enterprises hasn't been mathematically performed, which affects the quality of the article in some extent. Therefore, the future stress should go to the anatomy and mathematical figuration of game theory process.