The Effect Of China’s Changing Demographic Structure To The Consumption Structure

The18th National Party Congress proposed to attain the goal of completing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects by2020, the goal mean a new level of our nation’s development. In retrospect, China’s development has been in the explored, the different stages of development has different theme, the transition to a market economy from a planned economy, the accession to WTO promote international trade and exchange, the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure, the construction of the medical insurance and pension insurance system, all of this to ensure a steady, rapid development, made the achievements attracted worldwide attention. The goal of completing the building a moderately prosperous society indicates that China entered a new stage.Upgrading of consumption structure and aging of population, are the new tasks with our new stage. Since the reform and opening up, to develop the productive forces is the fundamental purpose of china, and purpose of production is consumption, so the upgrading of consumption structure mean that the development of the productive forces and the improvement of living standards, is a direct result of China’s economic and social development. Since2008, the global economic into a depression made that the foreign demand inadequate, found the power from the domestic market to ensure economic growth has become a hot topic. First of all, we should understand the needs of resident, the research of consumption structure is valid. Consumption is a combined effect of income, price, manufacturability, preferences etc, but some of this can’t be measured. There is no uniform definition of this, traditionally, people always focuses on income and price.At the same time, aging population is another topic that we are more concerned about. Family planning policy is effective to control the population, with the development, more and more people to notice it’s force on the changing in the demographic structure. The study showed that the trend of population aging in China has already appeared, with the continuing decline in the birth rate and the increasing of life expectancy, this trend will be more serious. The negative effects of population aging is reflected in the future development, mean the reduction of the labor force and increased social burden. People worry about that it will be result in the "old before getting rich". There is a lot of research for China’s population aging, include projected population trends, the effect to consumption rate, energy consumption and capital markets, etc.In this context, we put these two together to discuss, consumption structure is determined by consumer behavior, different demographic characteristics of consumers there are differences in their behavior, for this we trying to study the impact of the demographic structural changes on consumption structure. The theory of consumer spending agree with the age of the consumer closely related to the consumption rate and the theory of consumption structure agree with the effect of the level of expenditure. So, this study is very significance for future development, especially in the background of the structural adjustment of the industry chain.The first chapter is preface, summarizes the research background, purpose and meaning, as well as research ideas and research framework.The second chapter is the literature review section, summarizes the theory of Consumption Function and the consumption structure theory, we focus on the research ideas and methods.The third chapter, we explores the previous studies and the conduction mechanisms of the population structure affect of the consumption structure, build the research base. With analysis of the status of the development of China’s population structure, we found the urban-rural dual structure is different on the consumption structure. Then, we compared the structures in urban and rural.In the fourth chapter, we used the model AIDS to regress the consumption with income and price, used the method of Seems Unrelated Regression (SUR).Then,we build the demographic characteristics econometric model and used the GMM to estimate the dynamic panel data.The final chapter includes study conclusions, conclusions of analysis and policy advice.The research data from the "China Statistical Yearbook" and "China Population and Employment Statistics Yearbook", contains panel data of31provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions except Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau, time sequence2000-2010, due to the2011data is not complete, the paper did not join. The analysis software we used is Eviews6.0and Stata12.