Analysis Of Unit Area Grain Yield Trend Variation And Motivation In Anhui Province

Based on the grain yield,agricultural economy data and meteorological data in78counties and districts of Anhui Province from1991to2010,using spss statisticsoftware and meteorological software,between temperature,precipitation,maineconomic factors and unit area grain yield were analyzed.Agaist Anhui Province byunit area grain yield,putting forward some ideas about stabling production increasingproduction.The result showed that:(1)From1991to2010, The average grain yield appear fluctuations and upwardtrend of Anhui Province.All counties grain yield time trend coefficient and averagegrowth rate appeared upward trend. Coefficient of variation appeared downward trend.Low growth rate, large coefficient of variation areas loated in jianghuai and east ofhuaibei. Between yanhuai and middle of yanjiang, trend coefficient and growth rateare high.But wannan and dabieshan, trend coefficient is high, growth rate is low.(2) On the basis of unit area grain yield trend in Anhui province, the type of unitarea grain yield in Anhui could be divided. Using the method of Squared Euclideandistance and Furthest Neighbor, combile temperature,precipitation terrain,and consideprinciple of contiguous.Finally,unit area grain yield in Anhui could be divided intofour areas. Ⅰareas included Huaibei and East of jianghuai,Ⅱ areas included Yanhuaiand Middle of jianghuai,Ⅲ areas included Yanjiang and Middle jiangnan,Ⅳareasincluded Dabieshan,South of jiangnan and Wannan.(3)Affecting that unit area grain yield trend of main economic factors.Per capita netincome of peasants and governmental expenditurewere seated in first andsecond.Then effective irrigation area, total power of agricultural machinery, ensuredstable yields despite of drought and flood area and rural electricity consumption.Agricultural film and pesticide consumption did not have too much influence.In eachfactors, it exsited regional difference in contribution rate of production.(4) Meteorological yield that unit area grain yield minus trend yield. Decompositionof unit area grain yield, Ⅰ,Ⅲ,Ⅳareas adopted unit area grain yield and maineconomic factors analysis method, multiple linear regression equation,then stepwise regression analysis. Corrected local years moving average,Douglas productionfunction Ⅱareas used Douglas production function, obtained trend outputsequence,.Finally,geted the relative meteorological yield. precipitation andmeteorological yield were trend fitting.(5) Ⅰ,Ⅱ,Ⅲ areas relative meteorological yield fluctuated large, Ⅳareas relativemeteorological yield fluctuated small. water conditions was influenced big effects inMeteorological yield. Four areas crop from three to nine months active growthstage,fitted quadratic curve. From north to south,The most suitable precipitation ineach areas respectively400-800mm、400-1000mm、500-1000mm、800-1400mm.