Research On The Allocation Of Grain Target And Task Based On Analysis Of Spatial Difference Of Grain Production Capacity In Henan Province

In 1994,the head of the U.S.World Observatory Institute Brown published a long article entitled "Who Will Feed China",which raised concerns about China's food security issues at home and abroad.Although the situation of China's grain production is not as severe as Brown predicted,it is indeed not optimistic.In 2017,China imported more than130 million tons of grain,which accounted for 21% of the country's annual grain output,and the total grain imports ranked first in the world.As the country with the largest population in the world,China must achieve self-sufficiency rather than rely on importing food.It is necessary to firmly control Chinese people's rice bowls for the sake of ensuring national food security.Food security is an important component of national security strategy.Central No.1 document in 2018 initially introduced food safety legislation and raised national food security to legal level,which manifested Communist Party and State's great importance to food security.As the core area and major province of national grain production,Henan Province shoulders the heavy responsibility for guaranteeing national food security.According to Outline of National Grain Strategic Project Henan Grain Core Area Planning,by 2020,Henan provincial grain production shall reach to 65 billion kilograms.That is to say,the implementation of grain production target in Henan province plays a decisive role in fulfilling strategic target of national grain production.Whether Henan Province can complete the target of food production issued by the state is a matter of great concern to the country and local people's governments.Therefore,how to decompose the task of implementing grain production target is the key issue for Henan Province to develop strategic layout of grain production.Directing at the grain production issue concerned by Henan Provincial People's Government,the quantitative forecast is carried out on future grain production capacity in Henan;on this basis,the grain production capacity of cities and counties in Henan is forecasted.According to the forecast results and combining with the functional positioning of regional territorial development,the task distribution model of grain production target is established to decompose as well as implement provincial grain production target to the cities and counties(districts);in order to guarantee the cities and counties(districts)in Henan to complete their respective grain production target,the specific regulation target is developed for each region from the perspective of the factor influencing grain production capacity.In terms of predicting provincial grain production capacity,the quantitative analysis is carried out on the factors affecting grain production capacity.Based on Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index quantitative calculation,it is acquired that Henan's contributions to growth of grain sown area and yield per unit of production ratio separately are 11.12 % and88.88%.This indicates that the main cause of increase in grain yield in Henan over the past40 years is the growth of yield per unit area.Under the situation of limited reserve resources of supplementary cultivated land,it is unrealistic to increase grain yield depending on the growth of grain sown area,so the key to enhance grain production capacity in Henan still lies in per unit area yield of grain.In this view,this paper emphatically analyzes per unit area yield,which is the key factor that determines the increase of grain production capacity.According to the limitation of potential in increasing per unit area yield and the weakening process of per unit area yield enhancement potential,the model of weakening of unit area yield enhancement potential is established to conduct medium and long-term prediction of unit area yield.Meanwhile,the deficiency in existing per unit area yield time sequence forecast model with infinite growth is improved,which includes unable to reflecting limitation of per unit area yield growth and inadequacy of acceleration mitigation.The research results show that with the continuous increase of per unit area yield,the potential of future per unit area yield in Henan Province will gradually decrease,and the rate of increase in per unit area yield will slow down.Based on the middle and long-term forecast of per unit area yield in Henan,and in order to enhance the credibility of grain production forecast results,the statistical analysis of historical data,regression modeling and planning analysis are combined together.From the objective and subjective perspectives,the parameters affecting regional grain production capacity are determines,such as future cultivated land quantity in Henan,food-to-cash crop ratio and cropping index.It is forecasted that Henan provincial grain production capacities respectively will be 625.90×108kg and 725.39×108kg by 2020 and 2030.The forecast results indicate that it is of certain difficulty for Henan to achieve a food target of 650×108kg by2020.The predecessors' results are so optimistic t that the government shall pay close attentions.By adopting the technological ideas and methods that are the same as forecast of provincial grain production capacity,the per unit area yield models for Henan cities and counties are established to carry out quantitative prediction on grain production capacity in cities and counties in different regions.Meanwhile,task distribution model of food production target is built up to decompose provincial food production targets and tasks.According to the results of task decomposition of grain production targets,Zhumadian,Zhoukou,Xinyang,Nanyang and Shangqiu are the core food production cities,the grain production capacity are 64.96×108kg-84.17×108kg by 2020,which mainly distributed in the eastern plain of Henan province and Nanyang basin;Xinxiang and Anyang are the sub-core food production cities,the grain production capacity are18.92×108kg-39.69×108kg by2020,which mainly distributed in the northern plain of Henan province and the central Henan urban agglomeration and few areas of western Henan;Hebi,Sanmenxia and Jiyuan are the general cities food production,the grain production capacity are 2.30×108kg-13.75×108kg by 2020,which mainly distributed in the mountain area of western Henan and the northern of Henan.In order to ensure that all cities,counties(districts)successfully complete their grain production targets and objectives,grain production regulation indexes are developed for different regions,including the indexes of cultivated land quantity,basic farmland protection targets,construction land occupation index,supplementary farmland index,food-to-cash crop ratio and cropping index,.