The Study Of The Influence Of Age Structure Changing On The China’s Consumption

At present, China’s economy developed rapidly while consumption rate is showing a long-term downward trend. Low consumption rate will lead to effective demand inadequate, thus affecting the country’s economic development. Population age structure and the relationship between economic growth has been an important theoretical and practical issues, which for a correct understanding of a country’s population and economic development and formulation of relevant policies have important guiding significance.Based on the age structure of our population, changes in the age structure of our population and the relationship between the consumption of Chinese residents were discussed from theoretical and empirical. Therefore, firstly, this paper based on the development of China’s population, establish Leslie model, using relevant data and Matlab software to forecast China’s total population and the population ages; Secondly, learn the theory of consumer economics, building into population age structure variable (child dependency ratio, the elderly dependency ratio) of the Chinese residents consumption function model. Selecting31provinces and autonomous regions from1997to2011provincial panel data of our country, the dependent variable is the consumption rate, the independent variables were child dependency ratio, the elderly dependency ratio, urban-rural income gap, inflation rate, the tax share of GDP, the actual interest rates, establish macro-panel data model, using Stata software to empirical test the national and sub-regional eastern, central and western with China’s consumer function model, and verificat the empirical results.The empirical results show that:(1) China’s total population in2024will exceed1.5billion mark around, to the year2045, the total population will reach peak1.539billion, to about year of2057, the total population will fall below1.5billion.(2) From one in terms of the dependency ratio, the total dependency ratio has tended to increase, would reached the highest77.05in about2051, followed by decline, child dependency ratio is declining, the elderly dependency ratio is rising.(3) from the National empirical analysis shows, either static or dynamic panel estimation panel estimates, the relationship between our children and elderly dependency ratio and the ratio of household consumption is:the rate of residents consumption between the child dependency ratio is positive correlation while between the elderly dependency ratio is negative correlation.(4) sub-regional eastern, central and western estimates show that child dependency ratio effect on residents consumption in different regions of the country is different conclusions, and the elderly dependency ratio effect on residents consumption and the conclusions of the country is consistent, are negatively correlated. Conclusion that changes in the age structure of our population of residents with low consumption phenomenon has a significant influence, and with the aging process intensifies, this phenomenon is particularly evident.