Studies On The Influence Of The Employment Structure’s Deviation From Industrial Structure On Economy Growth

The theme of this assay is how the in-coordination of industrial structure and employment structure influence the economy growth—compute the loss caused by the in-coordination of the abovementioned structures from1978to2011. According to The Neoclassical Theory, the growth of economy is contributed by the capital and the labor and the technical development, while the last one—the technical development is defined by the Solow Residual Value in which all the factors are different from the capital and the labor. Considering its visibility, many scholars apply the Solow Residual Value in their research. However, the simplification of the technical development in a "residual value" was criticized by many other scholars, for instance Lucas and Roemer. In the New Growth Theory, ignoring other difference between The Neoclassical Theory and The New Growth Theory, redefines the contributions of economy growth and holds the opinion that technical development is more complicated and the externality, capital factor etcetera should be considered. On the basis of the aforementioned views, domestic scholars specified the Solow Residual Value. Similarly, the Solow Residual Value is separated into The Departure Degree of The Industrial and The Employment Structure—E and other factors in this assay and estimate the loss caused by the deviation of the two structures from1978to2011in China. According to the methods and results, the advice of policy is showed at last.First of all, three fields, which are concerned with the theme in this assay, are analyzed, including the separation of economy growth, the loss of economy growth and the influence of the deviation of the industrial and the employment structures. Based on that, the method of The New Growth Theory is showed and The Departure Degree of Structure E is contained in the Cobb-Douglas equation.Secondly, The Departure Degree of Structure is computed from1978to2011so that the movement of the Industrial and Employment Structure will be revealed clearly, which could be viewed as the backgrounds of the explanation of how the two structures influence the economy growth. After the computation of the E, the relativity between economy growth Y, capital growth K, labor growth L and the departure degree of structure E is done to confirm the negative relativity between economy growth Y and E. This could be seen as a proof that the research is meaningful.Considering the time series data from1978to2011, the unit root test was adopted and the outcome showed a satisfying result-all the time series passed the ADF test. It is the indispensable foundation of the co-integration. Through the abovementioned co-integration test, we got the co-integration equation including the Y, K, L and E. With the lags was set by3, the Granger causes and consequences analysis show the statistical casual relationship existing between the concerned variables. Then, after computing the growth rate from1978to2011, we got the variables" contribution to the GDP growth rate and the loss of GDP growth rate caused by the in-coordination of industrial structures and employment structures. According to the computing in this thesis, the average loss of GDP growth rate caused by the in-coordination of the aforesaid structures was about1.49%in every year. With the concerned history of economy reform, this thesis discussed the abovementioned result.What needs to be paid attention is that this thesis ignore the difference between the workers, whereas, it not in accordance with the truth.In the end, the policies are presented.