Study On Land Use Quantity Structure Optimization In Guangzhou Based On Carbon Emissions Limited

The human activities have added more influence on the atmospheric environment by the expanding global economic scale and growth population, especially over the past century, the earth constantly "fever". So, the global greenhouse effect which by the carbon emissions from human production and living has become a hard fact. The international community has signed conventions which can cool the earth in climate negotiations; meanwhile, as one of the power carbon emissions counties, China has also put forward the carbon intensity in2020decreased40%-45%than2005. Reduce carbon emissions has been the consensus, and also becoming the focus of academic research, which the research process from the field of natural carbon cycle to the urban carbon cycle has revealed the influence of land use change second to energy consumption on urban carbon emissions, essentially, carbon emissions by urban economic development, industrial development, transportation and other energy consumption from production and living, they all have to carry on urban land use. Land use type and the spatial planning not only determines the morphology, structure and scale of urban development, but also directly affects the human economic activities and energy consumption intensity, so, reduce the urban carbon emissions can choose the perspective of land use. Therefore, how to quantitative research the effect of land use on urban carbon emissions? How to scientifically reveal the equilibrium model of low carbon economy and land use? In this paper, choose Guangzhou as the study area, introduce the concept of low carbon economy to the land use structure optimization, deeply analyze the land use structure optimization based on carbon emissions constraints, hope to provide a new train of thought for carbon city construction, also provide a scientific reference for the land sustainable use and development planning to Guangzhou in the future.Combining with the related theory and data, in accordance with the research thought of "pressure-state-response". The paper, first of all, identified the relationship between land use and urban carbon emissions; Second, revealed pressure of carbon emission reduction by land use; Third, diagnosed the coercion risk of low-carbon land use stress state; Finally, constructed the land use structure optimization model based on carbon emission reduction innovatively, which as the response to relieve the pressure and reverse the high risk status. The major research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1) The change of land use and carbon emissions has a strong positive correlation. We can find that the change of land use causes the carbon emissions’change through stationary test and granger test, and the land for residential areas with mining and transportation has larger influence on urban carbon emissions, that’s say, construction land has larger influence on urban carbon emissions than farmland and unused.(2) The carbon emissions from1996to2010increased year by year in Guangzhou. The carbon emissions from energy fuel consumption account for the biggest proportion, and the districts and counties on the low level of carbon emissions present more concentrated in2005, contrary to2010.(3) The net carbon emissions present an upward trend from1996-2010in Guangzhou. The carbon emission effect of construction land is maximum, or the carbon sink effect of forest land is maximum. At the same time, the districts and counties belong to different net carbon emissions levels are more dispersed on spatial distribution in2009. In addition, the carbon efficiency improved in Guangzhou, but if the city needs to achieve the target, the pressure index of carbon emission reduction is1.056, must adopt carbon reduction method.(4) The stress values of land use low-carbon coercion risk increase year by year, the LCSR is maximum in2008. In addition, the risk level divide by the fuzzy membership degree, than, we can find that,15years, four years in a high-risk state, six years in a higher risk, four years in a medium risk, one year in low risk, and no year in save state.(5) The optimization scheme which get from the land use structure optimization model based on carbon emission reduction is feasibly and operable. Because the total carbon emissions is2764.7958×104t, while the general land use planning has3539.2659×104t, the optimization scheme decrease about774.4701×104t, it has played a larger effect of carbon reduction. At the same time, the reduced carbon emission amount to1610.6655×1084Yuan. The optimization scheme not only to achieve the goal of urban carbon reduction, also improves the overall efficiency of land use.