Based On A Combination Of Logistics Demand Forecasting Method

With the rapid development of Chinese economy, the material flows acrossdifferent region and time get more frequent than before. The logistics has already beenconsidered to be a fundamental industry in economy and its development is one of theindicators which can measure the degree of economic boom in a country or region. Wetake the development of logistics in Chongqing for example. Chongqing is scheming fora project, which includes three hub of logistics parks, eight regional logistics base, anumber of general and professional logistics center, the formation of complementaryadvantages, and mutual support system of modern logistics layout. All those arereasonable forecast and planning along with economical development in Chongqing andits corresponding logistics demands. Since reasonable forecast in logistics demandscontributes to efficient resource allocation, in the aspects of its future orientation,strategic planning, market analysis and infrastructure planning and layout, it’s necessaryto establish efficient model to forecast logistics demands.The article is organized as follows. Firstly, we provide a brief overview of thedevelopment in the logistics industry and then analyze the logistics demands in details;secondly, we compare the qualitative forecasting methods with the quantitativeforecasting methods in the forecasting theory and then introduce particularlycombination forecasting theory; thirdly, we analyze the influencing factors of thelogistics and construct the index system of logistics demands; lastly, with considerationto the derivative feature of logistics demands, and the development of economy andlogistics in Chongqing, this paper establishes the combination forecasting model andmakes the empirical analysis, which indicates that the combination forecasting modeldoes improve the forecasting accuracy.There are three characteristics in this paper:(1) this paper analyzes logisticsdemand from the perspective of economic theory and then enriches the meaning of theforecasting models;(2) the model and analysis can verify that the combinationforecasting model indeed improves the prediction accuracy;(3) the best forecast periodof the combined forecasting model is3-5years, and the influence of forecast period onprediction accuracy is larger than that on regression method.