Research On Cigarette Demand Forecast Model

Cigarette demand forecasting is the process of tobacco business company researching cigarette market and the cigarette sales data,then using scientific analysis methods to forecast the market demand and the trend of the future.National Tobacco Monopoly Administration take exploring the demand forecasting method as the primary task of pilot enterprises in the notice on the cigarette marketing marketization reform pilot work in 2015.It requires the pilot enterprises to explore the establishment of scientific and accurate demand forecasting model according to the local economy,population development situation and historical sales data,to improve the accuracy of forecasting,to better play the guiding role of demand forecasting.In 2015,Company A became cigarette marketing marketization reform pilot.It is necessary to explore the demand forecasting model which is in line with the trend of cigarette marketing marketization reform,and improving the existing demand forecasting method.Therefore,this thesis elaborates the background and research significance of the thesis first and summarizes the relevant literature of cigarette demand forecasting.Then,this thesis taking Company A as an example,constructing a variety of forecasting models to forecast the annual cigarette demand of Company A.By comparing the forecast accuracy of each model,the linear combination model based on gray model and multiple regression model is selected as the forecast model of annual cigarette demand of Company A,and the annual demand of cigarettes for the next five years is forecasted.This research is based on the actual needs of Company A and the background of the current tobacco industry reform and the application of enterprise demand forecast.The research results provide effective forecasting method for enterprise decision makers and enrich the forecasting method of enterprise.This thesis has a certain application value and theoretical significance.