Industrial Structure And Economic Growth In China

In recent years,With the rapid development of the industrial structure,attracting more and more scholars put the focus on research industrial structure andeconomic growth up. Therefore, Research is also increasingly rich. Most scholars athome and abroad take the attitude between industrial structure adjustment andeconomic growth is: There is a dialectical relationship between them,they are Interactand influence each other.Since the reform and open policy, China’s economic development has achievedremarkable results, industrial structure made a large effect on the economicgrowth.Before1986,our country’s industrial structure is the second, first, thirdindustry, after1986the tertiary industry has been rapid development, The tertiaryindustry in GDP from the reform and opening up12.18per cent to35.7per cent in2011, exceeded the proportion of primary industry, our country currently industrialpattern is "two, three, one,". Therefore, Study the relationship between the industrialstructure adjustment and economic growth has a realistic significance.By the results of the literature search, in recent years, Chinese scholars havedone a lot of research on the role of economic growth of the industrial structurechange. But most of them is limited to logical reasoning and normative analysis,between them there are lacks of rigorous empirical support. Therefore, This paperuses time series econometric VAR model on the relationship between the industrialstructure and economic growth in China carries on the empirical research, ismeaningful.Since reform and opening up is a turning point in China’s economicdevelopment, this paper selects1978-2011annual panel data on China’s industrialstructure adjustment and economic development to do the in-depth research. In thisarticle,we use the dynamic econometric VAR model as the research model. On thebasis of dynamic econometric VAR model, This article uses stationarity,Cointegration test theory, Granger causality test, Error correction model, Impulse response function and Variance decomposition to deeply research the panel data.Finally, by using multiple linear regression analysis, estimates the three big industryof our country of the contribution rate of economic growth.Through several rounds of attempts, In this article, we select actual real GDPproportion of value added of the tertiary industryG3, The third industry employmentto total employment populationW3as the index of measuring the industrial structureadjustment, use1978as the base index of gross domestic product GDPI as economicgrowth index, carries on the empirical research. The results show that Each indexseries are non-stationary series but it is an integrated of order one and there is along-term stable equilibrium relationship between our country industrial structureadjustment and economic growth——the cointegration relationship. Grangercausality test results show that between industrial structure adjustment and economicgrowth exists a two-way Granger causality, the adjustment of industrial structure canpromote economic growth, economic growth can also promote the optimization andupgrading of industrial structure.Regression analysis of the industrial structure to quantitative measure thecontribution of economic growth show that, Primary industry, secondary industry andtertiary industry in our country added value for every1%increase, will cause thegross domestic product increased by0.19%,0.54%and0.27%respectively. Thissuggests that the second industry has always been the pillar industry status is notmoved, the third industry of our country economy growth has the greatest potential.Obtained that suggestions that in the second optimization, on the basis ofdevelopment, vigorously develop the tertiary industry, the first industry to promotepositive change policy to the further development of our country’s economy.