Research On Green Credit Evaluation Model Of Commercial Bank Based On Technology Of SVM

Since21st century, the real estate has a remarkable development with the economic development in China. Although the development of the real estate drives the economic development to a certain extent, excessive prices growth has some negative impact. Several macro-control measures have been taken by government to control the prices, but ineffective. Base on this background, it is important to investigate the effect of the monetary policy to the prices of Hunan province. According to this research, give some reasonable and effective suggestions to improve the effect of the monetary policy.In this thesis, the effect of the monetary policy on the real estate prices in Hunan Province has been researched. Through a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis, investigate the impact of monetary policy is effectively or not.Through qualitative analysis, the theory of that how monetary policy affect the real estate prices has been studied by the studying of literatures. It was concluded that the conduction of monetary policy on real estate prices can be divided into two aspects, the first is the conduction of monetary policy on the real estate prices, and then the conduction of the real estate prices on the macro-economy. The ultimate goal of monetary policy has been achieved through this conduction process. In the first session, the monetary policy primarily through three channels of interest rate, credit and asset portfolio affect the real estate prices; In the second part, the real estate prices is through the wealth effect, household balance sheet effect and crowding out effect affect the consumption; And also affect investment through direct investment effect, Tobin’s Q effect and balance sheet effects.The quantitative analysis is also divided into two blocks:the first is the conduction of monetary policy on the real estate prices of Hunan Province, and then the conduction of the real estate prices of Hunan Province on the macro-economy. By constructing a VAR model, investigates the effect of interest rates, financial institutions loan balance on real estate prices of Hunan Province. The mode has been tested through Johansen cointegration test, stability test, Granger causality test, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis. And investigate the long-term relationships, as well as short-term fluctuations in the monetary policy and the real estate prices in Hunan Province. Then, the quantitative analysis the effect of real estate prices in Hunan Province on Hunan real economy. Reached the following conclusions:(1)In the long term, Hunan real estate prices with interest rates and the balance of loans from financial institutions was to change in the same direction. The impact of interest rates on the price of Hunan Province is not significant, while the balance of loans from financial institutions affect real estate prices in Hunan Province is significant.(2)In the short term, Hunan real estate prices with interest rates showed changes in the same direction, while it was changed with the balance of loans from financial institutions in opposite directions. The impact of interest rates and loans from financial institutions on the price of Hunan Province are not significant.(3)In the long term, the Hunan property prices were positively correlated with the Hunan Provincial GDP, consumption, investment; and the impact of estate prices on GDP and investment was significantly, then the impact of estate prices on consumption was mot significantly.(4)In the short term, Hunan Provincial GDP and investment changes in the same direction with Hunan real estate prices, while consumption changes in the opposite way with Hunan real estate prices. The affect of real estate prices in Hunan Province to GDP, consumption and investment are not significant.Quantitative analysis found that real estate prices have obviously effect on the macro-economy, however the conduction of monetary policy on the real estate prices in Hunan Province is not smooth enough. The reasons are mainly in two areas:monetary policy is not so complete and the conduction of monetary policy has regional differences.Thus, this paper proposes that the real estate market monetary policy should be improved through the implementation of market-oriented interest rates, the use of multiple regulatory tools, decentralization of part of the right to regulate, and focus on real estate prices.