Study On The Risk Management Of The Agricultural Product Supply Chain

Our country is one of the largest producer of agricultural products with small-scale production or small agricultural cooperatives. Agri-product supply chain management is one important way which meets the needs of residents and enhances the competitiveness of agricultural products. In recent years, agri-product supply chain management becomes one of the hotspots, since the attention of the state on the "three rural" issues and food safety issues. However, the difficulty of Agri-product supply chain risk management is increasing because of production of dispersion, structural complexity, and the uncertainty of supply and demand. In this paper, it focuses on the agri-product supply chain risk management research as follows:(1) First, it identifys the risk factors which affect the operation of agri-product supply chain by SCOR method and referring to the relevant literature. Then, it establishes a relatively reasonable risk evaluation index system of agri-product supply chain according to the identification of risk factors, and evaluating the risk evaluation index using Fuzzy AHP and geting the weight of each risk factor. Finally, it finds that information risk is the most important risk factors, and the risk of asymmetric information is the main performance on information risk.(2) The establishment of asymmetric information risk control model uses the option theory and designs the reasonable option parameters, calculating the corresponding optimum production capacity, supply chain total profit and the profit of of each participant. And then, comparing with centralized supply chain risk decision model and decentralized supply chain risk decision model through relevant examples. Finally, it concludes that option-based risk decision model can effectively control the information asymmetry risk.(3) For other agri-product supply chain risk factors, it suggests the related control measures and management recommendations.In summary, this paper mainly researchs Agri-product supply chain risk management issues in theory, it’s research work is to establish a relatively reasonable evaluation index system of agricultural supply chain, and evaluated to identify the most important risk factor, and then establish the appropriate risk control model. For other risk factors, it suggests the related control measures and management recommendations.