The Situation And Trend Analysis Of Urbanization And Housing Market

Urbanization refers to the process that the agricultural population into urban population, rural areas into urban areas, agricultural activities into non-agricultural activities. With the level of economic development improving, the rural population gradually migrate to urban areas, and the migration makes urban population proportion in the total population increasing. On the one hand, housing as one of the basic needs of residents in the four basic needs of the urban population will inevitably has a positive impact on the increase in housing demand and housing prices, thus raising the level of urbanization will bring a broad space for development of the urban housing market. On the other hand with the development of urbanization, urban infrastructure construction, resource carrying capacity, health care transportation, etc., will become the focus of attention, and raising the level of urbanization put forward higher requirements on the urban sustainable development.Imbalances of regional economic development in areas and differences in regional development make migration from rural areas to urban areas, so urban population is increasing every year. The increase in the urban population has increased the demand for housing, and urban housing prices are also pushed up, so this article will focus on the level of urbanization and urban housing market. The content of the article is to analyze the level of urbanization in China’s development and changes in the urbanization process, demonstrate the characteristics and problems of urbanization, explore the relationship between the urbanization level and the urban housing market, and we also make predictive analysis of the development of urbanization and changes in the housing market. As the housing market can be divided into two properties with housing needs and housing prices, so this article elaborate on the housing market performance from the housing sales price and sales volume of two aspects.First, this paper analyzes the impacts of urbanization development on the housing market based on related theories and explore its impact mechanism. Second, analyzing the current level of urbanization in China’s overall development status and existing problems, the current situation and changes in the housing market. In the empirical analysis, selecte1998-2011, China’s23provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions panel data, the level of urbanization and housing sales price, home sales estimates for variable coefficient panel data model, and explore the positive and negative impacts of development of housing market to the development of urbanization in addition. Again using the fifth census data and the sixth census data, according to the difference between urban and rural growth rate of the whole country so as to predict future changes in the level of urbanization, and we use the predictive value of the level of urbanization to forecast the home sales and housing sales price. Finally, according to this study and conclusions, we put forward relevant policy recommendations.Results of this study indicate that the overall level of urbanization in our country is currently in the development stage of three rapid urbanization in the development stage model, some time in the future will remain in this stage. Empirical results show that the level of urbanization has increased the demand for the urban housing, the urbanization has a positive role in promoting housing sales, which also makes the average selling price to further improve, urban development has a significant role in promoting the housing market. But the levels of urbanization among different regions have different effects on the housing market. While the panel regression model estimation results indicate that the macroeconomic situation variable have a significant impact on home sales, but the variable was not significant in housing sales price model, which may be derived from the real estate developer preferring lower home sales instead of lowering housing sales price due in the period of economic development downturn, in order to avoid a loss of housing development projects. From the results, the level of urbanization predicted that by2020China’s overall level of urbanization will reach61.41%, to2028the overall level of urbanization will exceed70%, go to the third stage of urbanization development. The housing market forecast results show that the urban housing sales price and home sales continue to maintain growth due to strong housing demand of urban residents.The rapid development of urbanization in the city promotes the development of the housing market, but it also brings some social concerns. In the current stage of urbanization, the contradiction of housing supply and demand is very serious, so the government should rationally plan the urban development, solve the contradiction of housing supply and demand, improve the income level of urban residents. In order to meet the housing needs of residents, the government should increase affordable housing construction, make urban housing prices to a reasonable regulation, not only to improve the living standards of urban residents, but also concerned the surrounding living environment, medical transportation, etc., work hard so as to raise the level of living.