Research On Risk Pre-warning Of Rural Micro-credit In Commercial Bank

The Eighteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of Chinaadvanced that we should deepen the reform and accelerate the development. Onemission of improving people’s livelihood and promoting fair distribution of socialwealth is to make more farmers and minor enterprises get more inclusive financepolicies. Rural micro-credit， at the present time， is the important part of theinclusive financial system in our country， which plays an irreplaceable role insupporting for the development of "the Three Elements ConcerningAgriculture， Rural Areas， and Farmers" and helping the rural poor to shakeoff poverty. With the development of rural micro-credit， the institutions of itstill face the high risk and the sustainable development of them has the risk ofhidden dangers. Effectively controlling the risk of it will support the sustainedand healthy development of micro-credit， improve the rural financialenvironment and promote the construction of the inclusive financial system. Forrural micro-credit risk management， establishing effective risk pre-warning is atop priority.This paper took the commercial bank as the research object， establishingthe risk pre-warning system of rural micro-credit. Then it made empiricalresearch， so as to provide methods to commercial bank. On the basis of ruralmicro-credit risk management research at home and abroad， this paper firstexplained the rural micro-credit and the analysis the sources and types， Basedon this， it established the risk pre-warning system of rural micro-credit，which includes three functional modules. Those were the rural micro-credit riskevaluation model based on the comprehensive risk evaluation index system，the rural micro-credit risk prediction model based on GM （1，1） and riskpre-warning mechanism. It selected11indexes and used the analytic hierarchyprocess （AHP） to determine the weight of each index when made the rural micro-credit risk evaluation， then it determined the index data processingmethod--efficacy coefficient method. At last， it made the risk pre-warning byusing GM （1，1） and divided the five classification interval of it. Afterestablishment of the system， this paper selected the data of China ConstructionBank PL branch in2012to make the empirical analysis and get the conclusion.According to the conclusion， it proposed three methods included riskmanagement， risk diversification and risk sharing to control the rural micro-credit risk.As stated above， through establishment the risk pre-warning system ofrural micro-credit in commercial bank， we can control the risk of rural micro-credit in commercial bank effectively， which will promote the development ofrural micro-credit and then fully realize the inclusive finance system.