| In the situation of integration and globalization of the regional economy, regional logistics has become an important area in the development of modern logistics, and has received worldwidely concerns. The development of coordination between the regional logistics and regional economic has become an important factor of the regional economy, which keeps sustained, rapid, stable and healthy development. The improvement of logistics level plays a positive role in reducing cost, enhancing the efficiency and economic benefits of regional economy and improving the competitiveness of the regional market.The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is one of the most important economic regions in China. The development of regional logistics will promote regional economic integration process. First, this thesis analyzes the development Status of economic and Logistics in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, taking into account the economies of scale, economic performance, living standard of people, foreign economic, freight scale and the number of employees, use DEA-Malmquist index model which can deal with the problem which includes many input and output to evaluate and analyze the logistics efficiency in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Then it taking into account the economic significance of the production function and the applicability of short-term forcast of gray GM (1,1) model, combining VES production function and GM (1,1), and use investment in fixed assets and number of employees of Traffic, Transport, Storage and Post to predict freight traffic to predict the logistics demands of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. It also compares the accuracy of results, and find out the accuracy is improved. Finally, the article proposes some suggestions about how to develop the logistics of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. |
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