| Logistics industry as producer-service suppliers, their level of development has a certain impact on all aspects of the social economy. However, compared to developed countries, China’s logistics cost of GDP is too high, this problem not only affects the competitiveness of enterprises and products, but also affect the overall level of the national economy at the macro level. The similar situation also exists in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the three places general lack of unified planning, the logistics network system construction and layout of the industry has almost no coordination, each city has their own separate logistics development plan and the establishment of an independent logistics park according to their needs, resulting in duplication and waste of logistics resources, and also caused confusion in the logistics system.Therefore more and more research attention has been paid to reduce logistics costs. Currently, academic available research on logistics cost focused on the collection and accounting of third-party logistics costs, mainly aimed at the cost of one logistics enterprise. For the entire region as a whole, the research on the logistics cost from the perspective of the integration of regional is still rare.This article first analyzes the research background and significance of the integration of logistics of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, introduced the theoretical basis used in this article: industrial cluster theory,Integration of regional integration theory, system dynamics method, and studied the related literature at home and abroad. And then analyses the logistics industry development present situation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,and analysis the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats faced in the process of logistics integration of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, Analysis results show that compared with the developed countries, there are some advantages in the process of integration logistics of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, but also has obvious disadvantages and shortcomings, such as: the economic interests coordination efficiency among governments in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is low, logistics infrastructure construction not harmonious; Logistics standardization and informatization level is low; Modern logistics talent shortage; Logistics enterprise scale is small, the third party logistics development is not fully and so on. Then use the regression analysis and gray correlation analysis method respectively to analyze the relationship between the logistics industry and economic growth. The results indicate that there is a significant linear relationship between regional logistics development and economic growth of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei: When an additional unit of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei logistics, GDP will increase 17.240 units; When an increase of ten thousand tons of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei traffic volume, GDP will increase 33.27 million yuan. There is an obvious correlation between logistics and the first, the second and the third industry, the correlation degrees are0.528323262,0.881250576,0.786846765 respectively.So that the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebeiregional logistics industry has a great contribution in promoting economic growth and optimizing the industrial structure, providing the basis for the rapid development of the logistics industry and reduce logistics costs in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Then, the whole regional logistics cost compositionis are analyzed through the view of the system,firstly analyzes the feasibility of using system dynamics analysis method to analyze logistics costs, then to determine the boundary of the model system and the function required and establish the logical relationship between various factors affecting logistics cost, thus established the whole model of transportation costs and inventory costs and total cost. Combined with the actual situation of 2005-2014 of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei logistics cost to each of the data and influencing factors into the model, and examined the effectiveness of the model, Validation results show that: between the actual cost of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and logistics simulation results,the errors are less than 10%, it is considered that the established model is effective.Next, using the model analysis the cost of logistics for the next decade, and then simulation analysis of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei logistics cost under current situation and realizing the logistics integration respectively. The analysis results show: compared with the cost of logistics simulation results under the current situation, logistics costs significantly reduced after integration. May safely draw the conclusion of this article: logistics integration of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei effect is remarkable.So that: achieving regional integration logistics is an effective way to reduce logistics costs.Finally, the paper puts forward some countermeasures to promote the development of logistics integration based on the obstacles in the process of developing logistics integration:promoting the economic interests of the coordination between governments and the integration of logistics infrastructure; To strengthen the construction of logistics standardization and informatization level; A variety of ways training, the introduction of logistics talents; Encourages the integration of logistics enterprises and interregional development and the development of the third party logistics. In this paper, study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei way to integrated logistics, help governments between the coordination of economic interests, help to build rational layout of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the connection of comprehensive transportation system,unified planning and logistics infrastructure, each region reasonable orientation, dislocation development. And promote the cultivation of the talent, accelerate the process of regional economic integration. To provide a reference for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and other areas develop integrated logistics, and in speeding up the economic integration of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the paper will play a positive role, has some certain practical significance and guiding significance. |
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