The Impact Of Migration And Remittance On Agricultural Mechanization And Agricultural Output

With the reform of planned economic system and the loosening of traditional household registration system, rural labors transfer from agricultural industries to non-agricultural industries, and from rural areas to cities and towns in China. By the end of2009, there were15,198migrants in China, and70.3%of them came from less developed provinces in central regions and west regions, such as Sichuan, Henan, Anhui, Hunan and Jiangxi Province.Migration is beneficial to alleviate the contradiction of surplus rural labors and increase farmers’ income, but it has brought enormous challenges on rural development and agricultural development. Because migration makes a decline in the labor who are engaged in agricultural production, while household income from remittance is rarely used for agricultural productive investment. In order to prevent a huge negative impact on agricultural production, the most important way is to increase the alternative inputs of labors (such as agricultural machinery input), to improve agricultural productivity, and to promote agricultural modernization.Based on a household investigation from288farmers in3villages in north-east Jiangxi in2010, this study is to analysis the impact of migration and remittance on agricultural mechanization and agricultural output in the view of household. It includes two levels:First, to analysis the relationship of migration and agricultural mechanization using statistical data of national and Jiangxi Province from1996to2010; second, to analysis the impact of migration and remittance on agricultural mechanization and agricultural output.In the empirical part, this study analysis the total impact of migration and remittance on agricultural mechanization and agricultural output by constructing models, and analysis other factors which affect households’decisions of migration, remittance, agricultural machinery input and agricultural output. Three equations, including migration equation, remittance equation and agricultural machinery input equation are estimated as a recursive system. And other three equations, including migration equation, remittance equation and agricultural output equation are also estimated as a recursive system. In order to estimate all equations accurately, this study uses Tobit and OLS models, and uses instrumental variables to solve endogenous problems. Conclusions are as follows:1. The positive effect of remittance on agricultural machinery input is bigger than the negative effect of migration on agricultural machinery input. The total impact is that:a one-person increase in migration leads to a15-yuan per mu increase in agricultural machinery input, which occupies17.07percent of the average input.2. The positive effect of remittance on agricultural output is smaller than the negative effect of migration on agricultural output. The total impact is that:a one-person increase in migration leads to a15-jin per mu decrease in agricultural output, which occupies2.19percent of the average output.