An Empirical Analysis On Carbon Emission Effect Of The Brics’ Foreign Trade

Global climate change caused by greenhouse gases is a serious threat to the world economic development and even the survival of mankind. In response to the climate challenge, a series of international climate regime and environmental arrangement have gradually formed since the early1990s, coupled with the influence of economic crisis, the development of low-carbon trade has quickly become a rational choice for the BRICS and other emerging economies to sustain the development of foreign trade. Objectively, along with the expansion of foreign trade and economic growth, the BRICS’ co2emissions is also expanding rapidly year by year, in the long run, their global energy conservation and emissions reduction task is increasingly difficult. Obviously, the study of the carbon emissions effect of the BRICS’foreign trade has important practical and theoretical significance.The purpose of this paper is to follow Werner Antweiler, Brian Copeland, Scott Taylor(1998)’general equilibrium model about trade and environment problem,and using the econometric model to research the impact of foreign trade on carbon scale effect, structure effect, technological effect of the BRICS,which has carried on the static and dynamic analysis. Also has draw lessons from Cole (2004) of the net exports as a proportion of consumption index (NETXC) to empirical examine the international carbon emissions transfer effect of the BRICS’ foreign trade. Specifically, this article firstly describes the research background and research significance in the introduction part, and then review the literature at home and abroad. Trying to study the effect of foreign trade on carbon emissions by taking into the general equilibrium model of trade-environment inside, and then graphic describe the mechanism of the carbon emissions effect of foreign trade in the theoretical analysis part. At the part of the situation analysis, respectively analyzed the BRICS’foreign trade present situation and trend of carbon dioxide emissions. At the part of the empirical research, this article is divided into two parts to measure carbon emissions effect of BRICS’ foreign trade. The first part is measure analysis about the impace of foreign trade on carbon scale effect, structure effect, technical effect; The second part is empirical analysis of carbon transfer effect across national borders on the foreign trade. The first part by adopting a measuring model of general equilibrium method, and combined with the using of static model and dynamic model in order to make a more comprehensive and accurate research on the empirical analysis of international trade influence on carbon dioxide emissions; The second part through the introduction of the net exports as a proportion of consumption index to analyze the carbon transfer effect of foreign trade, by comparative analysis of high carbon and low carbon industry’s the net exports as a proportion of consumption index, thus draw the conclusion to examine whether the BRICS bear the implicit carbon emissions for other countries.The empirical analysis results show that:firstly, the BRICS’foreign trade makes the carbon emissions increase, the scale effect and the structure effect are both negative, technical effect is positive; and then the relationship of BRICS’carbon dioxide emissions and its economic scale presents inverted U-shaped, so the environmental kuznets curve is true; lastly, through the net exports as a proportion of consumption index of high carbon industry shows that the developed countries do transfer high carbon industry to the BRICS, so the BRICS have undertaken the implicit carbon emissions of its trading partners through foreign trade in fact.