The Research Of Development For Shandong New Energy Industry Based On Technology Foresight

Since the21stcentury, with the traditional fossil energy in great use, on the onehand,this situation cause a worsening of the environment; on the other side, lessenergy reserves and energy prices continued to rise, result in the contradiction betweensupply and demand of energy tension. The development of new energy industry thatoptimizes the structure of energy, cultivates new economic growth point and realizes thesustainable development between economy and society has important significance. As abig province of energy consumption for Shandong, energy supply and demandcontradictions become increasingly prominent. Energy problem has become the mostimportant factors of restricting the social and economic development. The development ofnew energy has become the more important way for our province to realize the adjustmentof energy structure and the sustainable development between the society and theenvironment.As a new strategic management tool that committed to the integration between thescience and technology, can accurately grasp the future trend of development in the scienceand technology, find the researching and developing area of the key technology, determineindustry development goals and make reasonable plan for industry development. Studieshave shown that take patent analysis and the Delphi method is the efficient way that isrecognized by the current society. In this paper, Delphi method is used to foresee theShandong new energy technology, and on this basis we will draw the technology roadmap.The researching achievements are as follows:The preliminary analysis make use of the patent analysis method in the new energytechnology. The Delphi is then used to foresee the energy industry of Shandong province.According to the important degree of the new energy technology, then concluded that thekey technology of top20.the top five key technology: biological diesel oil, new type ofsolar cell, solar heating systems, wind turbines, polysilicon purification technology.According to the results of clustering analysis, the road map of the new energy Industry will be made. According to the situation, the result of technology foresight and theTechnology roadmap, this paper will put forward the countermeasures to development ofthe new energy in Shandong province.