Technology Foresight Based On The Delphi Method

Since the1990s, as science and technology in economic development of the growing role of technology foresight has become the world’s countries to develop decision-making and the development of science and technology development strategy an important part. Both developed and developing countries in Europe and America, are actively brewing and launched a series of national-level technology foresight activities.Technology Foresight is a future trend of technological development and its impact on economic, social and environmental aspects of impact assessment methods. On this basis, in order to develop decision-making and the development of science and technology development strategy, so as to realize the rational combination of resources and optimization configuration. Technology Foresight accuracy depends largely on technology foresight method is reasonable. Technology Foresight goals largely depends on technology foresight method is reasonable selection. With the Technology Foresight practice to carry out, technology foresight methods are becoming increasingly enriched and improved, there is scenario analysis, brainstorming, text mining method and so on. The Delphi method is a technique in which foresee the most commonly used method. Delphi method is to rely on experts to predict the prospects for technological development. Whose philosophy is based on the rule of technical experts, provided that technological development has its own laws, including the tendency of technological determinism. Obviously, this approach has both advantages and obvious shortcomings. The biggest problem is that it ignores technology is a social-technical systems, technological development process is not linear, but the political and social and economic life intertwined.Article is divided into five parts. First, in the introduction, which introduces the thesis topic background, significance, research methods, research ideas, methods and innovation; followed on technology foresight connotation, including the definition of technology foresight, theoretical basis, common method and domestic and international technology foresight were carried out summary presentation and analysis techniques of technology foresight own limitations, chapter highlights the main content of the Delphi method, implementation procedures and characteristics, analyzes the theoretical basis of the Delphi method thus the Delphi method is applied to assess the value of nanotechnology, and further said Matilda Amalfi method is characterized by; On this basis, from the Lopol technology-social system theory, analyzes Delphi Technology Foresight methodology as the problems and propose some techniques to make up for the Delphi method foreseen in the proposal of defects. Final conclusion:the Delphi method as technology foresight methods despite its advantages, but there are obvious flaws. Technological development is not linear, technical activities not just technical experts and the main scientific and technological workers, but includes an outsider, including public. Technology is the future and our future life choices relevant. Therefore, the technology foresight must absorb public participation, must take into account the public’s will. Technology is an expectation in the future, what kind of technology and we expect to have what kind of life are inseparable.