The Research Of Land Use Spatial Pattern Simulation Based On CLUE-S In County Scale

In this study, Xiangcheng District is being used as the research area. Taking the current land use map of Xiangcheng District in 2009 and 2013 as basic data, considering the driving factors of land use change such as natural environment conditions, geographical factors and human economy, with the aid of GIS spatial analysis method, using CLUE- S model, we simulate the land use spatial pattern of 2013 and 2020 in Xiangcheng District. The results of this study are helpful to find around the land use change rules and reveal the driving forces of land use mechanism of Xiangcheng District. It can also provide reference for the configuration of land resources, land use regulation and related research of land use in Xiangcheng District and other similar areas. The main conclusions of this study are as follows.(1) Using the transfer matrix of land use, the main characteristics of land use change of Xiangcheng District in recent years are analyzed. The decrease of garden and cultivated land,the increase of urban and rural construction land are the main trends. The sizes of the change are respectively 30.18%, 0.02% and 6.15%. The change of forest land, water and other land use is not obvious.(2) This research uses Logistic regression analysis to study the driving factors of land use spatial pattern at different spatial scales(50 m * 50 m, 100 m *100 m, 150 m * 150 m and 200 m * 200 m). By comparing the ROC values of different scales,we can conclude that CLUE-S model is suitable for Xiangcheng District to simulate the spatial pattern of land use on 150 m * 150 m grid-scale. At this scale, the ROC values of cultivated land, garden, Forest land, water, urban and rural construction land and other land use are:0.748, 0.744, 0.824, 0.629, 0.735 and 0.868, which shows that the driving factors we used in Logistic regression equation can accurately explain the land use spatial pattern in Xiangcheng District.(3) The main driving factors and driving mechanism of the cultivated land, garden, urban and rural construction land which are significantly changed from 2009 to 2013 are analyzed.The forth driving factors of cultivated land spatial pattern are: slope, altitude, distance to rural settlement center and distance to the main road; garden are:slope, distance to rural settlement center, distance to town center and distance to lake; urban and rural construction land are: slope, distance to rural settlement center, distance to town center and population density.(4) The land use spatial pattern of 2013 in Xiangcheng District is simulated. Kappa value calculated by the comparison between simulated and real land use in 2013 is 0.946, which proves that CLUE- S model can accurately simulate the spatial pattern of land use in Xiangcheng District at the spatial scale of 150 m * 150 m and can be used for the simulation and prediction of land use spatial pattern in future years.(5) Making the land use spatial pattern of 2020 which is simulated by CLUE-S model for reference,we analyzed the rationality of land use planning. The concentrated distribution of urban and rural construction land and the transfer from garden and other land to cultivated land are the main features.