Investment Portfolio And Risk Early Warning Of China's Basic Old-age Insurance Fund Diversification

With aging intensifying in our country, inflation and rigid growth of pay for the aged, more pressure is given to payment of our country’s pension. Under the current policy of insurance fund, its investment channels are narrow, and investment income is low.Pension is eroded by continual inflation, and even the goal of maintenance of value cannot be achieved. However, diversity of investment of endowment insurance in our country can improve the above situation.First of all, more and more surplus of basic endowment insurance fund is accumulated, which provides fund support for the diversification of fund.Secondly, the operation of the national social security fund and annuity provide reference for investment of endowment insurance fund,and national policies are gradually loosening its investment tools. The research for diversity of endowment insurance fund investment and warning of risk is stiIn the first place,this article reviews and analyzes our country the status quo of primary endowment insurance fund investment operation, and the feasibility and necessity of the diversification of primary endowment insurance fund is also analyzed. Secondly, on the basis of the theory of portfolio, selecting the average CPI in recent35years as value of taget, and the annual growth rate of as higher yields which is calculated through GDP in2020doubleing that in2010put forward by the eighteenth big, selecting the bank deposits, government bonds and stocks for investment tool, and thus building diversified portfolio model of primary endowment insurance fund, calculating the yield of investment tools and correlation, and finally it is concluded that investment proportion and variance of investment tools, value target3.97%for stock,9.52%for bonds and86.51%for bank deposit, value-added target20.33%for stock,48.71%for bonds and30.96%for bank deposit.Then according to the theory of risk management, by a variance measure risk method,dividing risk level with the variance of investment proportion, and putting forward the method to reduce risk, and then finding that tools limited to government bonds and bank deposits will not be able to realize their value, that diversification is the future trend, and that basic annuities will benefit from the interest rate marketization, but the establishment of the risk warning system is the premise of diversification. According to the analysis conclusion, putting forward relevant policy suggestions from the overall level, investment channels, management philosophy and risk warning.