| With the development of the economy, coal import increases substantially. Coal transport shifts from dominant coastal transportation to a combination of coastal transport and import from other countries. The demand change happens, then the problem of how to adapt to the supply capacity of this change is to be studied in this article. The paper investigates the development planning of Chinese coal import fleet. How to manage the fleet size and structure under the precondition of satisfying the transport demand to improve competitive edge and secure transport safety under the background of increasing coal import has become an issue worthy of research.A brief introduction on world coal resources distribution, production and consumption is given, followed by the major seaborne coal importing and exporting countries. Thus we have a relatively clear understanding of the world seaborne coal trade patterns. General conditions about supply and demand of coal in China are analyzed to point out the contradiction lying in the supply and demand in China and the inevitability of import. Further, current coal import trade situation and its future trend are also analyzed.Based on the historical data, a quantitative method is utilized to predict the future importing volume. Import trend for the next10years is given based on the combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis. After introduction of major loading and unloading ports and significant coal importing enterprises, the trunk import lanes are also summarized. An LP method is utilized to form a model for ship fleet planning with the target of minimum operating costs. In addition, scale and structure of fleet for future coal import is obtained based on the prediction of importing volume, the current port and shipping lane situation and trend.Finally, uncertainty lying in market shares of domestic vessels is analyzed to disclose some trends and the size of fleet under different scenarios with different market shares to provide reference for our importing enterprises. The viewpoint of the market shares of domestic vessels should be improved and the following advice are given after a discussion. |
