| In these recent years, drybulk shipping market is in fiercely fluctuation, since the market nowadays not only closely connected with global economic but also easily impacted by market news. This brings a lot of opportunities to the players in the pool but always with huge risk actually. However, the fluctuations of the market is not without a pattern but presents certain periodicity. At present, we rely on the Baltic Drybulk Index to reflect the prosperity and downfall of the market. The index could directly reflects the cyclical nature of the market, for an instance, on the May 20 th 2008 touches the highest point of 11,793 but on the February 23 rd 2015 reaches the bottom of only 512 point so far.(The benchmark index is 600 point since Year of 1986 founded.) It only takes seven years for the market fell sharply from the highest point to the lowest one, the freight rate is also continuously going down. Therefore, the study on shipping market cyclical characteristics is particularly important.This article is based on BDI and shipping capacity and volume over the years so as to analyze the characteristics of the drybulk shipping market, and further explore the Time Charter strategy thereby. Following are the main contents of this article:Firstly, states the attributes and rules of the market, point out the volatility characteristics and the theory of economic circles. And then, gives a view about inflexion includes short-term which is about the freight trend, mid-term which is to say according to China and India’s development, and finally a long-term basis on the future fuel replacements. At the end, some examples will be listed and propose how to do risk control so as to get a conclusion to estimate the recovery time, BDI improvements, as well as hire levels. |
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