Reaserch On Chinese Argureculture Productswith The Economic Transiformation

During accumulating reform period since from1992, China economy had a profoundinfluence on the rule of price fluctuation of agricultural products, including (1) upwardtrend of all agricultural products price as increasing demands and costs;(2) larger volatilityof agricultural products as losing price regulation and governance to market driving;(3)global pricing to parts of agricultural products as opened domestic markets;(4) obviousfinancial characters as spot and futures interactive effects;(5) impact on industrial policy toagricultural products market. As fundamental pricing effects by agricultural products, it issignificant important to identify and justify agricultural product price fluctuation, in orderto formulate relational and efficient macro-economic policy to maintain stable Chineseeconomic growth.This paper will use the PBC-X12and HP filtering methodology to analyse domesticagricultural prices trend component, periodic component, the seasonal component and theirregular component, under the ground of economic transition background.The conclusion is that, prices of agricultural products has a long-term upward trend inthe economic transformation period as improving income, urbanization and bio-energydemand expansion, decreasing cultivated area and agricultural workforce, agriculturalpolicy,.etc. In the economic transformation period, the prices of agricultural products cycleis not only affected by the natural disaster, the production cycle, but also affected by theprice of agricultural products futures. At the same time, highlight the external shocks and financial characters also magnifies the irregular fluctuations in the price of agriculturalproducts.