Simulation Study On Evolution Mechanism Of Endogenous Risk In Enterprises

With the accelerated process of economic globalization, China’s enterprises are facing increasingly tough market competition, thus, inevitably, faced with many risks. So, improving enterprise’s level of awareness of risk management and risk management capability is imperative. Firstly, based on the risk management theory, entropy and dissipative structure theory and system dynamics, the enterprise endogenous risk is defined as the uncertainty in the process of enterprise internal organizational elements matching. Based on the probability and impact of enterprise endogenous risk, the enterprise endogenous risk is divided into three types, named key risk, refined risk and edge risk. Secondly, the endogenous risk, from a dynamic perspective, is to tease out the five dynamic evolution models, namely:addition, thicken, glide, simplify and cut, so as to provide a new angle of recognizing the endogenous risk. Thirdly, based on the entropy and dissipative structure theory, the mechanism of evolution of risk collection, from the "conservation of matter and energy" perspective, is analyzed. And we propose a view, the change of system entropy, caused by the combined effects of many factors, inside and outside the system, leads to the selection of the evolutionary path of the risk collection. Finally, based on the system dynamics, using Vensim PLE, the simulating software of system dynamics, the causal diagrams and system flow diagram of risk collection system are build. And system simulations are carried out under the conditions of feedback loop closed and open. The simulation results verify the consistency of system dynamics model of risk collection and the model of risk evolution mechanism. And examine the impact of different levels of risk-sensitive to evolutionary process of risk collection. And draws the following conclusions, under the condition of fixed external entropy input, the program, with smaller enterprise risk sensitivity coefficient, will lead to greater entropy change, faster active entropy increase, system crashes and reconstruction frequency and fixed entropy increase.