The Application Of Mathematical Model In The Import And Export Supervise Risk Management Of Modern Customs

The CRM is a theory that developed after1950s. It based on many discipline such asoperations research and mathematics with strongly applicability. In nearly20years, Thetheory and applicability of CRM had developed rapidly. But the research field was mainlyfocus on finance、enterprise project and investment now. But the CRM faced on governmentdepartment such as customs is still in initial stage.This paper reviews the literature on CRM theory. Through analysis of risk-managementtheories and their practical applications to Customs operations both domestically and abroad,this paper considers the meaning and significance of risk in Customs, as well as varioussources, manifestations, and control strategies. Furthermore, the paper compares ChinaCustoms existing practice applications and experience of other Customs administrations,including those in the United States and the Netherlands. Then in terms of Customsenforcement, various models and methods of risk identifications, risk-based decision-making,and performance measurements for risk parameters are elaborated and expanded, addressingthe quantitative deficiencies in the current literature. Keeping with China Customs goals andprinciples, optimization functions with multiple risk-based decision-making objectives andcreating an inter-conditional factor-based joint modeling, as well as by taking into account theproportion of Customs enforcement. The paper employs actual Customs data to runsimulations of the three models described above, evaluating their feasibility and efficacy.