Research On Regional Allocation Of Carbon Dioxide Emissions Based On Entropy Theory

With the progress of industrialization and urbanization, China’s energy consumption is also increasing, and so is the CO2 emissions, which results in the prominent environmental problems. In 2009, Chinese government announced a voluntary reduction target:the CO2 emissions per unit of GDP will fall by 40% to 45% in 2020, compared to that in 2005. To achieve this goal, every province (municipalities and autonomous regions) should share the abatement responsibility. However, compared with other countries, there is a big difference in the level on the regional economic development, energy structure, energy efficiency, carbon dioxide emissions intensity, etc. So we can’t simply copy other countries’distribution experience, and instead, we must look for a more appropriate allocation method for our country.With comprehensive analysis of the principles and methods on the domestic and international allocation, we firstly use variance-covariance method, which combines gray prediction and variance trend line prediction, to predict our country’s carbon dioxide emissions in 2020. With integrating the characteristics of energy as a strategic resource, ensuring development stability, and giving full consideration to the regional energy situation and future trends, we use the approach of "set the cardinal number, assign the increment, determine the allocation quantity" to solve the allocation of carbon emissions in different provinces. By constructing the index system, selecting nine representative indexes to characterize the performance of the various regions and studying the quantitative analysis, it reflects the principles of fairness, diversity and sustainability; at the same time by introducing entropy theory and the choice based on historical data, it also reflects the diversity and sustainability of allocated objects. Both the objective description of the importance of each index, also can reflect the characteristics of the provinces of carbon emissions, which can get more in line with the geographical distribution coefficient characteristics, in order to build the method of Entropy mixed evaluation model based on multi-index, and finally to calculate the carbon emissions allocation of domain provinces. This multi-index system and method of combining information entropy takes the fairness, diversity and sustainable principles into account, and it can also play a positive reduction for each subject, which has strong operability. By forced mechanism, it plays a good role in regulating forcing each province to reduce its CO2 emissions and change the style of the economic development and its economic transformation.