Design Distribution Scheme And Forecast The Demand Of Emergency Supplies Under Sudden Events

In recent years, all kinds of unexpected events occur frequently, such as earthquake,fire,flood, make people’s life, property suffered huge losses, seriously affected the social stability and economic development. In order to minimize the losses caused by sudden incidents,restore the normal order of life as soon as possible, is essential to the disaster areas to carry out timely and efficient emergency rescue work, especially to the accurate prediction and reasonable allocation of emergency resource demand.In this paper, through systematic analysis of emergency supplies demand characteristics,demand classification, demand content distribution characteristics and decision characteristics,apply the theory of case-based reasoning, consider the case attribute values are not accurate or loss or affected by time factor, emergency supplies demand quantity forecast as the core, set up two models respectively to solve the problem of resource demand forecast.Firstly, through introduce the concept of interval numbers to describe the inaccuracy of characteristic factor value,then by using of structure similarity to calculate the loss of attribute of the case, set up a model based on the similarity of the structure and attribute about the emergency supplies demand forecasting of the resources. This method abandoned due to loss the attribute value lead to can not be calculated or the result is wrong, widely used in emergency decision before an earthquake or fire emergencies in unconventional.Secondly, by considering the properties of normalization, influence of weighting coefficient characteristic factors and each characteristics factors affected by the time, using the time factor in the case of weight adjustment based on established the model of the emergency supplies demand forecasting. The method can solve the similar case inquiry in the condition of the incomplete prediction information, analyze the similar case adjustment in the condition of the time affecting factor, judge the key characteristic factors of two cases under the condition of consistence and similarity, to determine the distribution of emergency supplies plan has laid a solid foundation. Then, the feasibility and rationality of the two methods are respectively analyzed by using examples, in order to solve the problem of emergency resource demand under emergency case reasoning method.Finally, on the basis of emergency supplies demand quantity forecast, reasonable design scheme of the distribution of it, established gradually deepening research of three emergency supplies distribution models: shortest emergency resource allocation of the single objectivemodel, emergency start time shortest and rescue the least number of dual target model,multi-objective allocation model based on emergency response cost. And uses the same instance in different model was used to get a good solution, then thorough analysis the calculation result, verified the rationality and scientific nature of various model theoretical reference for decision makers.