Research On The Influence Mechanism Of European Carbon Emission Price Based On BP Neural Network

As the human society to know the relationship between climate warming and the greenhouse gas, many countries or regions in the world took to establish carbon trading mechanism in order to develop energy conservation and emissions reduction, then seeking sustainable low carbon economy development. By the end of 2014, the international carbon market trading volume is about 10.42 billion tons, the total transaction value of about ＄54.908 billion. Among the EU emissions trading system of eu quotas EUA trading volume has reached 8.65 billion tons, turnover of abou ＄52.348 billion. The EU emissions trading system because of their large volume, liquidity strong and become the largest carbon trading in the international market, but the price of its carbon emissions is volatile. Carbon emissions with commodity property and financial attributes of economic value, at the same time, it has strong policy attributes. So sharp fluctuations in the price of carbon emissions trading and energy prices, weather factors, such as temperature, the global economy, and carbon emissions and emissions of supply and demand, price signals from policy meeting, and guide the direction of the market, financial market speculative factors. This reflects both it and other commodity markets around the world have similarities, and reflect the unique characteristics of carbon trading market and the price of carbon emissions in the process of carbon emission reduction as a kind of market driving force, is a decisive role.So this article mainly for EUA price fluctuation change, to analyze and study the influencing factors. Mainly by the EU emissions trading system as the research object, selecting the factors affect the price of carbon emissions index, using the BP neural network model, analyze data, impact factor weights are obtained. BP neural network to predict the advantages of the EU emissions trading system, mainly with self-organizing and self-learning function, strong fault tolerance, fast’s ability to get the optimal solution, thus sufficient guarantee in the carbon price build model has higher precision. Then use the effect model to measure test each influence factor’s influence on the output. Able to compare the different factors affecting the comprehensive role in EUA prices, the impact of the fluctuation in price of the EUA proportion. Through comparison and observation found that impact factor weight ratio of the UNFCCC> the price of coal> the price of crude oil> economic index> the price of natural gas> the price of CER> temperatures. Thus conclude that policy and energy factor is the impact on carbon emissions trading price most of the reasons, and the index of economic times, certified emission reduction price has a small effect, the temperature had little influence.Through to the eu carbon market price modeling analysis of influence factors, analyze the market in the process of running the cause of excessive price volatility and negative influence, on the basis of this puts forward three aspects to the construction of China’s carbon market’s revelation and advice. First, ensure energy market stability; Second, the government system innovation, including the adjustment of the carbon emissions quotas, carbon quotas inter-temporal storage lending mechanism, the stability of the policy; Third, establish a diversified markets, including development of financial derivatives market, establish a unified carbon trading market.And at present in our country in Beijing, guangdong, Shanghai, hubei and other seven provinces and cities, to carry out the experiments of carbon, and carbon exchanges have been opened, with trade form. The implementation of these carbon trading pilot to promote the construction of the country itself carbon trading market. But now China’s carbon trading mechanism design in the beginning, will inevitably face many problems. So in order to further promote the emissions reduction and economic development in our country, it is necessary to study and draw lessons from the way carbon emissions in the eu and advanced experience. To the European Union’s emissions trading system in the influence factors of the carbon price fluctuates EUA research and analysis,it can better grasp the carbon price trend of the international market, at the same time, the development of carbon trading system in our country put forward the corresponding countermeasures, in order to better promote the further development of China’s carbon trading, thus to improve and enrich the effective operation of carbon trading market in China.