The Study Of Sustainable Development Of Ecological In Sichuan Province Based On The Model Of Improved Ecological Footprint

Sustainable development requires the coordination of economic growth and environmental protection. In order to determine whether a region is in a state of sustainable development, it is necessary to make a quantitative analysis of the development of the area. Based on the above reasons, this paper uses the improved ecological footprint model to make quantitative analysis of the development of Sichuan province.This paper takes Sichuan Province as the research object, using the "Sichuan Yearbook" and the "Statistical Yearbook of Sichuan Province" in the land, agriculture and energy consumption data, the introduction of "Net Primary Productivity method (NPP method)" improved equilibrium factor and yield factor of traditional ecological footprint model, and the factor of improved calculation of the province 2007-2013 of the per capita ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity; according to the calculation results, the evolution trend of this area in recent 7 years, the per capita ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity; then the million GDP ecological footprint, ecological footprint diversity index and ecological footprint development to analyze the development status of Sichuan province; finally using two times exponential smoothing method to predict 2016-2022 per capita ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity, on the basis of the forecast results and puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions. Through the research, the following conclusions are obtained:(1) Sichuan Province 2007～2013 years of ecological footprint per capita appear increasing, rose to 2010’s 1.168117ha/cap from 2007’s 1.009829ha/cap, finally increasing to 2013’s 1.214452ha/cap, but the per capita ecological carrying capacity is decreasing year by year, decreased from the 2007’s 0.495059ha/cap to 2010’s 0.492249ha/cap and finally dropped to 2013’s 0.488304ha/cap. This result of the above two trends led to the per capita ecological deficit in 2007-2013, which indicates that the development of Sichuan province is not sustainable, reflecting the development of Sichuan Province, the supply and demand of resources.(2) From the point of view of the structure of the ecological footprint per capita and the seven years of fossil energy is the fastest growing, rose to 2010’s 0.712292ha/cap from 2007’s 0.584005ha/cap, finally increasing to 2013’s 0.753524ha/cap, the growth of 29.03%. At the same time, it accounts for larger, from 57.83% in 2007 to 62.05% in 2013, which means that the region is in a period of rapid development, the consumption of energy is increasing.(3) Million GDP ecological footprint, ecological footprint diversity index and ecological footprint development capacity can reflect the relationship between resources, environment and economic development.2007～2013 years of this 7 years, million GDP ecological footprint, ecological footprint diversity index remained unchanged. This shows that the distribution of land in Sichuan province has little change, but the efficiency of resource use is increasing. Ecological footprint development capacity in the past 7 years, there has increased, but it has a great relationship with the growth of ecological footprint, so this kind of development model is not reasonable.(4) The exponential smoothing forecast, to 2022 the area of per capita ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity will reach 1.351324ha/cap,0.473574ha/cap. Per capita ecological deficit will reach 0.877750ha/cap is 1.95 times of the ecological carrying capacity. This means that the human load than the ecological carrying capacity of the category, the province’s development will face a more severe challenge. In order to improve the situation, we should develop a recycling economy, improve land use efficiency and find new energy and other measures to deal with this situation.