Research On Ecological Economic System Based On Improved Ecological Footprint In Hebei Province

In recent years, the economy has been developed rapidly and comprehensive strength has been improved significantly in Hebei Province. At the same time, Hebei is facing a series issues of ecological damage, resource shortage, etc, followed the continuous growth of economic total amount, and those issues have become the key factors to restrict the economic development in Hebei. How to achieve sustained and stable economic development becomes an urgent issue to be resolved in Hebei. Ecological footprint model is a common method to study ecological economic systems, but there are still some deficiencies in traditional ecological footprint model. So, considering the impact of the freshwater on social production and on people s daily life, freshwater is added to the conventional ecological footprint calculation as a new account, and the ecological footprint modle is improved by introduction of the multiple cropping index. Based on the improved ecological footprint model, the paper built up an index system of Hebei ecological economic systems, and analyzed the ecological supply and demand of Hebei in recent 10 years (2000-2009). Then, the development capacity of Hebei was qualitatively analyzed with GDP per capita and ecological footprint per ten thousands GDP to find out the major factor which affect the imbalance development between ecologic and economic. Finally, the developing ability of Hebei ecological economic systems for the coming years was predicted with exponential smoothing models and the contermeasures for ecological and economic sustainable development were proposed in Hebei. The main innovative outcomes of this paper are:1) In recent 10 years, the phenomenon of ecological deficit in Hebei is significant, and the total ecological deficit has an increasing trend., which showed that the ecological economic system of Hebei is relatively unsustainable.2) In recent 10 years, the ecological footprint per ten thousands GDP of Hebei exhibits a declining trendency overall, and the rate of resource-ultilzing has increased year by year. But the use of resources towards simplification, which indicates that the socio-economic growth is achieved by the increase of ecological footprint. In addition,the Ulaowicz development capacity and per capita GDP have a highly positive correlation.3) The prediction of ecological economic systems indicates that:the development of Hebei is relatively unsustainable and it will be increasingly serious in 2011-2015.