Analysis Of Fatal Road Traffic Accidents With Massive Casualty In China

With the development of our country economy，road traffic has developed rapidly, butthe incidence of road traffic accident is on the peak, especially the fatal road traffic accidentwith massive casualty (over10deaths in one crash)(RTCMC).Its mortality rate is about50%.RTCMC has more serious influence compared with20%of the national road traffic mortality.Therefore, in-depth analysis of RTCMC to improve the safety level is of great significance.We establish the accident database and use two data mining methods of factor analysisand decision tree to analyze RTCMC in depth.First,250fatal accidents cases from2005-2012are collected. We establish the accidentdatabase and conduct a statistical data features analysis of RTCMC, so we can effectivelygrasp the distribution regularity of this accident.Secondly, the influencing factors of RTCMC are analyzed to identify the maininfluencing factors. We establish factor analysis model in personnel, vehicles, roads andenvironment facors. Common factors are derived by factor analysis. The importance of eachattribute is calculated by weighting model, so we can obtain the main influencing factors.At last, in the main influencing factors, we establish deaths and mortality decision treemodel based on C4.5decision tree algorithm. From deaths and mortality, we make in-depthanalysis of RTCMC. It provides evidence of accident prevention countermeasures to reducethe severity of the accident.