Research On The Method For Obtaining The Space Debris Orbit Parameters Based On Detection Data

With the development of human spaceflight,space debris environment problem becomes more and more serious,which have been aroused more attention.In order to guarantee the safe operation of the spacecraft in orbit,it is high time to design the spacecraft protection structure. Space debris environment model is the basis for the design of the spacecraft protection structure.However, in China, research on the design starts late,and are still short ofindependent development of space debris environment engineering model which means that we cannot assess the collision risk of on-orbit spacecraft accurately.Therefore, it is necessary to research and develop of space debris environment engineering model independently. As the establishment of space debris environment model mainly bases on data and modeling theory, this paper puts forward a method to process the original observation data. With the existing observation data, this paper deduces the distribution of NaK droplet’s orbital parameters. The mainly content of this paper is as follows:Fist of all,this paper investigates the tiny fragments principle and space-based radar observations in situ detection principle, and then establishes the beam reside mode radar geometrical model and in situ detection space-based geometry model; through the observation model, the information of debris orbit parameter can be transformed to observation data. Based on this, orbit parameter information can beback-calculatedby using the distribution of observation data.Secondly, bayesian statistical inference model is established, and applied to spacedebris detectiondata processing. Then the paper analyzes the method to choosepriori information of debris orbit parameters in the use of bayesian statistical inference method to process the detecting data.Besides,simulation examples can prove that it is feasible and correct to process of space debris detection datawith bayesian statistical inference algorithm.Finally, the distribution of NaK droplet’s orbital parameters is deduced through NaK droplet radar observation data and bayesian statistical inference methods. The submodel and NaK droplet initial data are generated by applying NaK droplet, the tendency that NaK droplets change over time can be obtained by long-term evolution model. This paper compared the distribution of NaK droplet’s orbital parameters obtainded by the two ways,and aquired the same rule.In this paper,based on the research of the principle of space debris observation, tiny pieces of geometric model is established through observation results obtained by corresponding observations equipment. observation datais processed by bayesian statistical inference method, and this verifies the correctness of this method. Finally, using bayesian statistical inference method and the actual detection data, we obtain the spatial distribution ofNaK droplets. Although there is currently no detectingdata of the tiny piecesin China, the study of detection data processing method is very necessary. Because it is the foundation to set up the space debris environment engineering model. At the same time, It has a certain significance for future work on the space environment detection.