Public Building Energy Consumption Prediction Based On Grey System Theory

Energy demand has been increased with the development of economy and society, the contradiction between energy supply and demand have become increasingly prominent, China’s economic development has been constrained by the shortage of energy.The world primary energy consumption increasing year by year, China’s building energy consumption accounts for26%of the total social energy consumption in2012.Because of the size, level and particular function of public buildings, it’s energy consumption level is much higher than the residential buildings.With an increasing proportion in building energy consumption,public buildings have a great potential in energy saving, thus accurate and effective prediction of public building energy consumption has a great significant for nation’s energy development planning、building energy conservation and sustainable development of economic.Based on the analysis of the international energy situation and national energy situation, the current situation of public buildings’energy consumption of our country have was introduced in this paper. Different public building types have different energy characteristics and energy consumption composition, the same type of public buildings have different levels of energy consumption because of its different level of develpoment,due to the difference of its size,grand and service level,the same type of buildings in the same regions have different energy consumption level. The common energy consumption prediction model used by domestic and overseas was also described in this paper, analyzing the energy consumption factors of public buildings from macroscopic and microscopic.10factors of public buildings energy consumption used grey correlation analysis was selected such as:Urban per Capita Disposable Income of Households、GDP、the Added Value of the Tertiary Industry、the Proportion of Urban Population et al. The result shows that the10factors selected have a strong correlation with the public building energy consumption.Based on the date of public building energy consumption from1996to2011years, the gray prediction model is established, and the public building energy consumption from2012to2016years is predicted by using this model,non-equigap GM(1,1) was established using the positive residuals and negative residuals respectively.Predictied the positive and negative residuals respectively.The energy range cover was constructed by puting the energy consumption prediction and residual prediction toghter.