Research On Influencing Factors And Prediction Model Of Public Building Energy Consumption In Colleges And Universities

With the development of China's construction industry,China's GDP in 2015 is 63 trillion and 600 billion,accounting for 13% of the world,but the energy consumption per unit GDP is far higher than that of developed countries,which reflects the serious low energy consumption utilization rate.From the rate of growth of energy consumption,the growth rate of energy consumption in developing countries accounts for 23% of the world,and is still at 6.1%.The result of the analysis of energy consumption structure in China shows that the energy consumption of campus building accounts for more than 30% of the total energy consumption of social buildings,and the energy consumption of public buildings is 86.1% in the energy consumption of campus buildings.Therefore,it is very important to study the influencing factors and prediction models of energy consumption in public buildings.In this paper,taking the energy management system of a university in Xi'an as the research background,with the purpose of high efficiency and energy saving,combined with the advanced technology of wireless sensor network,the energy consumption monitoring platform based on wireless communication technology is set up,and two energy consumption prediction models are set up.Using the energy consumption prediction model which is more accurate to the public buildings in Colleges and universities is helpful to optimize the energy conservation management of college buildings,and provide theoretical basis and data support for the promotion of energy saving and emission reduction policies.The prediction model based on multiple linear regression and the dynamic response prediction model based on NARX based time series are established in this paper,and the order of the main influencing factors of building energy consumption in buildings is determined.Through the comparative analysis of the prediction results of the two models,the applicability and advantages and disadvantages of the two models are pointed out.Based on the prediction model and the influence factors of energy consumption,this paper analyzes the key point of building energy conservation and provides theoretical support and reference for the energy-saving renovation of the public buildings in the old universities or the trade-off analysis of the design parameters for the architectural energy saving designers.