Risk Assessment And Avoidance Strategies For Large-scale Wind Power Projects

With the worsening of energy situation, the depletion of traditional energies, and the increasing of serious environmental pollution, the development of renewable clean energy like wind power is of important economic and social significance. Wind power has been looked as a vital choice in many countries to improve the energy structure, and to face the climate change. In recent years, the wind power installed capacity achieved a rapid growth in China, which has overtaken the U.S. to become the first large wind country in the world. Wind power has become the highlight of China’s economic development. In the coming years, China’s wind power will usher in the history of the construction boom; however, the risk of it can not be underestimated. Wind power project risk management provide significant protection to avoid the risk of loss, and to improve the social and economic benefits. In this paper, based on the Risk Management Theory, risk identification, risk assessment, risk aversion strategies and risk management effectiveness evaluation, large-scale wind power projects are analyzed in accordance with three main lines:the breakeven risk, the cost risk, the risk of full life-cycle. What’s more, some risk assessment methods have been applied in this paper, which are the dynamic balanc e of the gain or loss on the point of risk, the Monte Carlo-based project cost risk, and the fuzzy theory and expert advice on the full life-cycle risk is the risk assessment, respectively. Then, the actual results have been got through the evaluation. With the improvement of the degree of the wind turbine localization, the host device prices continued to fall, which can reduce the cost per kilowatt, and has a very good role in the safe guarding of the project cost risk. With the booming development of wind power, the whole-life-cycle risk aversion measures can reduce the probability of risk, the loss of risk effectively, which can protect staff personal safety and reduce economic losses. The economic evaluation of a large-scale wind power project based on dynamic breakeven analysis gets the electricity sales amount and the influence degree of sensitive factors at the break-even point. The results provide a reference index for the market viability of this wind power project.