Research On Investment Risk Of West Inner Mongolia Large Wind Power Project

Energy is an important foundation for national economic growth and social progress.Under the trend of vigorously developing clean alternative energy sources and promoting energy conservation and emission reduction,many countries are committed to developing new energy sources such as wind power,photovoltaic and hydropower.The installed capacity of hydropower,wind power and photovoltaic power in China has been the first in the world.At present,wind power is an important choice for China to conform to the development trend and improve energy structure.Its development has been promoted to the height of ensuring energy security strategy in China,and it will play a more important role in energy utilization and energy security.From a strategic perspective,the development of wind power is a trend and will occupy a considerable proportion.However,due to the characteristics of large-scale wind power projects,such as large amount of investment,long cycle,many uncertainties and difficult construction,there are many kinds of risks faced by large-scale wind power projects,and the risk factors are very complex.In order to ensure the smooth implementation of wind power projects,it is necessary to evaluate and study the investment risk of the project.At the same time,it can provide a huge guarantee for improving the scientific and systematic risk management of large-scale wind power projects,which is conducive to avoiding risk losses and improving social and economic benefits.Based on the comprehensive analysis of domestic and foreign research literature on investment decision-making of wind power projects,this paper considers that it is necessary to analyze and study the investment decision-making risk of large-scale wind power projects in China.Firstly,the development status of wind power in China is analyzed in detail,including wind energy resources and installed capacity of wind power in China,and risk management theory and common methods of risk assessment are introduced.Then,the possible investment risks in large-scale wind power projects in China are analyzed.The risk types of wind power projects in China are roughly divided into environmental risk,policy risk,economic risk,technical risk and organizational risk.The risk factors of decision-making stage,design stage,construction stage and operation and maintenance stage are identified.According to the principle of establishing the index system and the characteristics of large-scale wind power project investment decision-making,the index system of risk assessment model is established.Based on rough set theory and fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm,a risk assessment model of wind power investment is established,and the feasibility and validity of the method are verified by four examples of wind power projects in Mengxi,which provides a reference for investment selection of large-scale wind power projects.Finally,combined with a series of risk coping strategies,the corresponding measures are put forward for each stage of wind power project risk,in order to prevent the occurrence of project risk and control the inevitable project risk within a reasonable range,provide guarantee for the smooth implementation of large-scale wind power projects.