| The Paper is based on the Sulige economic development zone as the research object, and is the evaluation of sustainable utilization of water resources theoretical system as the basis,apply the PSR conceptual model to establish index system based on the "Human Water Harmony", select the comprehensive index evaluation method for Sulige economic development zone from2001to2010is analyzed and evaluated the harmony degree; By using the quantitative theory of harmony of the Sulige economic development zone2011-2016water resources sustainable utilization degree of harmony makes forecast analysis. The results show that:1. In the whole index system,"Per capita water resources" and "urban residents per capita living water" harmonious degree is below0.2, is in a disharmonious state. Show that per capita water resources" and "urban resident per capita living water" is the biggest factor of sustainable utilization of regional water resources;"River pollution percentage" harmonious degree greatly decreased, decreased from0.62in2001to0.32in2010, Show that The "river pollution percentage" is the unfavorable factors influencing sustainable water management area.2. The harmonious degree of HS water resources and social economy system has been at the highest level, Harmonious degree value is in more than0.5and increased year by year, explain that it has the greatest positive effect to The sustainable utilization of water resources in the economic development zone comprehensive harmonious degree WH. Water resources utilization degree of harmony and guarantee system of HU is always below0.45, show that it has a great restriction to The sustainable utilization of regional water resources. The harmonious degree of HE water resources and ecosystem change trend of instability, In2002the degree of harmony in the low level of0.30, while in2006rose to a larger value of0.50, Thus the water resources and ecological environment system is sensitive level effects of sustainable water management area and fragile system.3. Overall, comprehensive harmonious degree WH the Sulige economic development zone showed an overall increased slowly during the calendar year, Rose from0.36in2001to0.52in2010, in2002the small decline for0.34, In general is in the harmonious condition. This shows that the Sulige economic development zone is in the development of the economy strong, and to alleviate the regional water ecological environment deterioration and reduce excessive exploitation and utilization of water resources of strength, continuously improve the water resources sustainable utilization rate.4. By the analysis of prediction, Water resources the sustainable utilization of harmony HD in the Sulige economic development zone of in future is generally less harmonious state, But the regional water resources utilization is not very sharp contradiction, The water resources supply and demand contradiction can be resolved through effective regulation. From the change trend, from2013to2014the economic development zone of harmonious degree decline, Shows that the number of the future in the park officially put into operation of industrial projects continue to increase, domestic water and production water demand has increased dramatically, while the park can meet the water supply can not.5. Since2014the harmonious degree has tended to lower levels,values are in0.5the following. This shows that living in economic development zone production water consumption and the contradiction between the increasing amount of water supply. Therefore, effectively improve the efficiency of water use, industrial water reuse and water reuse rate, at the same time, the economic development zone industrial structure adjustment is the key to the realization of sustainable utilization of water resources and water shortage in the Sulige economic development zone, it is also an important guarantee for the Economic Development Zone Industrial sound and fast economic development and to the sustainable use of water resources. |
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