Analysis On Sensitivity And Impact Factors Of Expansion Highway Traffic Volume Forecast

With the rapid development of China’s economy and transportation, regional traffic volume is growing fast. The demand for the construction of highway is increasingly strong. But due to the new highway investment, time-consuming, occupation of land resources and other reasons, more areas tend to be on the expansion of the original highway. Traffic volume forecast result is decided to the technical level, the construction scale of highway, and the basic foundation of the national economy evaluation. After the highway project evaluation report, we find that there was large error between the actual traffic volume and forecast traffic volume of many highways, the first expansion road and the secondary expansion road in the stage of project feasibility study. Combining with the actual traffic forecast volume of MingLin secondary expansion road in Heilongjiang province, we extract the sensitivity factors in the impact factors of traffic volume forecasting, analyze the impact degree and propose the relevant measures.First, the paper describes two most widely used methods of expansion highway traffic volume forecast, the four-stage methods and the methods based on the transport channel, research the method and forecast model of the two methods, analyze the advantages and the scope of application of the two methods.Secondly, combining with the actual traffic forecast volume of MingLin secondary expansion road in Heilongjiang province and based on four-stage methods, using TransCAD software for expansion highway traffic volume forecast in this paper. Highlights include the future social and economic development trend prediction, the division of traffic area and the construction of a road network, OD matrix back stepping in the base year, the total traffic volume forecasting in the future, trip distribution prediction in the future and the allocation of the traffic volume.Thirdly, in this paper, the four stages of factors impacting traffic volume forecast is analyzed one by one. This paper extracts the sensitivity factors of traffic volume forecast in the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods.The last, based on the traffic volume forecast data of the MingLin secondary expansion road in Heilongjiang province, as the traffic allocation volume of expansion highway in the future is a evaluation index, based on the four-stage methods and TransCAD, using the single factor sensitivity analysis method, analyze the sensitivity factors, research the impact degree. In combination with the problem of the analysis results and actual forecast, put forward relevant suggestion and measures to improve the accuracy of traffic volume, hope to provide reference for traffic volume forecasting work in the future.