| Urban railway transit line is the modern urban traffic trunk line. And it is the importanttransportation of the green transportation. By urban rail transit, walking, by bicycle and byelectrombile constitute a set in which urban residents will choose in the daily travel. Thispaper aims at studying which slow traffic tool every resident will select when they travel byslow traffic tool transfer to the railway. The discrete choice model (ML model) had been setbased on the survey data. It is the basic work of predicting slow traffic volume quantity forurban railway traffic. And it is basic reference of decorating railway station and design forstation. Through the study of traffic attraction volume quantity between slow traffic tools andrailway station and application in practice, the work can make it that slow traffic transfer torail transit more harmonious and that urban resident travel more convenient in the daily.This paper introduces the study background from the development of cities in our country,urban traffic congestion and the development of green traffic including railway. It isimportant and necessary to do the study of transference from slow traffic tool to railway. Thepaper comes to the conclusion that the related study about traffic attraction volume quantitybetween slow traffic tools and railway station is not enough. Then, the paper describes thebasic theory of knowledge of discrete choice model and RP/SP survey method. And theWangJiadun rail transit station in Wuhan as the paper’s case. The author did investigationdata, and design RP/SP survey content respectively before the investigation. The paper putforward the” fan-shaped and piecewise section area sampling method” in determining thescope of the investigation area. So it can make the investigation area is random andrepresentative. According to the characteristics of the electrombile in the daily travel,electrombile will be a member of the set that include walking, bicycle. They are thealternative options of slow traffic tools.The paper analyzes the correlation between various factors and selection of slow trafficmode based survey data by using SPSS software. According to the Chi-Square Testcalculation results of factors, the paper determines three discrete variables and one continuousvariable. They are the type and quantity of slow traffic tools that every passenger have, thedistance between passenger’s address and the railway station, traffic service level and travelcost in the daily respectively. At the last, the paper establishes the discrete choice model (MLmodel) based on RP/SP survey data. Then the model parameters are calibrated by usingTRANSCADsoftware. The results show that the balance coefficient test value is3.792, thevalue is significant, the variety test value of passengers going slow traffic tools in discretevariables was as follows: no bicycle and electric vehicle test value is1.274, only have abicycle test value is1.650, only have electric test value is1.703, other variables test values were all significant. So, the discrete choice model based on RP/SP survey data has a verygood reference value and application value, and it can be the reference for the prediction ofattraction volume quantity for urban railway station. |
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