Research On Forecasting Model Of Slow Traffic Connection Demand In Urban Rail Transit Stations

As the main part of the urban transportation network,urban rail transit is responsible for the transportation of large-scale passenger traffic in the city.As a green and low-carbon transportation mode,slow traffic has a good development prospect.Taking the slow-moving traffic as a connection method to make the urban rail transit well-connected,it can effectively exert the advantages of punctuality and rapidity of urban rail transit.Therefore,in the planning of future transportation,the two methods should be coordinated and developed.However,from the overall perspective of the urban transportation network,the development of slow traffic is still in its infancy.The existing scale of slow traffic connections cannot meet the needs of urban rail transit connections.In order to solve the contradiction between supply and demand of slow traffic connection,this paper proposes a new type of urban rail transit slow connection demand prediction model.The demand forecasting model is based on the reasonable connection range model of the slowtraffic mode of generalized cost,the proportional model of the chronic connection mode of the urban rail transit station,and the research result of the slow traffic connection demand forecasting model.The integration innovation of the slow traffic connection demand forecasting method was carried out.Firstly,this paper analyzes the distribution of passenger flow in typical urban rail transit stations,and combines the field survey and analysis of passenger flow data at the peak time,and obtains the distribution law of passenger flow at the entrance and exit of urban rail transit stations.There is a general understanding of the demand for barge.The research on the reasonable connection range model of slow traffic mode proposes a new generalized cost calculation method.Firstly,the reasonable connection range and the generalized cost of the connection are defined.A reasonable connection range model of the slow-traffic mode based on generalized cost is established.The generalized cost of the connection mode of the slow-moving mode is compared with the traditional bus.The reasonable range of connection of slow traffic mode was adopted as a premise of space constraints for later research.That is to say,leaving this reasonable connection range,the prediction of slow connection demand will lose accuracy.The innovation of the research on the proportional model of the chronic connection mode of urban rail transit stations is the derivation method of the ratio of the connection method probability based on individual research to the overall connection mode.Firstly,the factors affecting passengers' choice of slow traffic connection are analyzed systematically,and a questionnaire survey is conducted.Through the collation and analysis of survey data,there is a basic understanding of the ways and impacts of different factors.On this basis,the multi-logistic regression method is used to test and calibrate the influencing factors,and the slow-connecting mode selection model of urban rail transit is constructed to study the choice of different connection modes for passengers with certain attributes.Probability.Among the three types of connection methods of public transportation,cycling and walking,the one with the highest probability is the result of predicting the connection mode of passengers,and thus the connection method corresponding to all samples in the previous questionnaire can be obtained.All the selection results are classified and summarized.The ratio of the travel volume of the slow connection method to the total travel volume is the ratio of the slow connection method in the survey sample.Because the sample of this survey is a sample survey and the sample is representative,it is considered that the survey sample represents the overall sample.The slow traffic connection demand forecasting model is based on the time probability model to predict the total passenger flow of the three types of connection modes in the shortterm and short-term orbital stations,combined with the proportion of the slow-connecting method studied in the previous study,and then the selection slow Passenger flow in the connection mode.On this basis,by studying the function relationship between the slow traffic connection and the speed of the slow connection facility,a ride connection demand model based on the stochastic service system theory is constructed.The instance was finally verified.This paper provides some references for the slow connection planning around the future urban orbital sites,and causes traffic planners and travelers to pay attention to slow traffic,so that the problem of traffic congestion and motor vehicle pollution is alleviated.