Forecasting Dynamic Evacuation Traffic Demand Based On Analysis Of People Travel Behavior

In recent years, due to increased disaster, emergency management become more and more difficult。Although there have been relatively perfect emergency management plans, but this kind of plan mostly stay in the management system, theory depth is not enough. Among the emergency management plans, the traffic evacuation management as an important part of emergency management, lack of intensive study on it.Normally, transportation planning and management is on the basis of long-term or short-term forecasting traffic demand, the emergency state is not exceptional, evacuation traffic demand forecasting is the most basic and important part of the emergency traffic management.Therefore, the problem of dynamic evacuation traffic demand forecast emergency situations change is to be solved, if there is a reasonable way to forecast the dynamic demand of evacuation,the others related issues of emergency traffic management will be solved.In the condition of Emergency,the characteristics of the crowd evacuation possesses are uncertainty, sudden and variability,evacuation decisions are affected by not only the large number of external conditions but also the internals. So,through studying on the investigation the psychological characteristics and the behavior of citizens to find some factors that influence the evacuation decisions,as well as applying these influencing factors in the course of modeling dynamic traffic demand forecast, so as to improving the accuracy of forecasting model,existing prediction method has very important practical significance.At the stage of designing the questionnaire, the goal which is comprehensive and reasonable accurate by reference to the behavior of the national special habits and similar areas of research results is achieved, and selected similar education backgrounds of the respondents to accept the investigation.Through the survey data, the evacuation crowd travel behavior is analyzed by the optimal scale regression and frequency statistics.The exactly conclusion is that internal factors and external factors influencing the crowd evacuation decisions in emergency conditions,Modeling odds ratio based on multinomial logistic about evacuation decision-making and influence factors,as well as predicting the predicted category and the predicted category probability by the model,thereby further acquiring the dynamic traffic demand. In the meantime,on the basis of survey data frequency statistical distribution,modeling the dynamic traffic demand and time by Compertz and Richards reaction curve.The fourth part,the last and the most important of the thesis,is about combination forecast based on minimum error variance criterion. The advantage of multinomial logistic model is it can establish influence factors and the demand of evacuation dynamic dynamic relationship,but the disadvantage is that the predicted results have a certain error compared with the actual survey results, and the lack of a clear time variable.The advantage of Compertz and Richards reaction curve is it can be to determine the evacuation dynamic demand a clear relationship with the time,but the disadvantage is that lack of consider on relationship influence factors and the dynamic demand. In order to complementary advantages and disadvantages, modeling combination forecast of multinomial logistic,Compertz and Richards reaction curvebased on minimum error variance criterion, finally it get the forecast model that considering the influencing factors and time variable.