Research On The Demand Forecasting Of Guangzhou Port Logistics Development

With the development of economy-transformation, Guangzhou port has entered thecritical period of port-transformation---from the third generation port to the fourth generation,Guangzhou have being in the historical period of new urbanization construction, nationalcenter for urban construction, realizing the "two take the lead, three position"transformation-upgrading.in this stage of transformation-upgrading development, Guangzhouport need to change the traditional way---throughput capacity to improve port development inthe past ten years, and need to play the advantage of commercial and transportation center insouth China and adjacent to Macao and Hong Kong. To strengthen the research of Guangzhouport logistics development direction, including the development of Guangzhou port andlogistics channel planning study, Guangzhou port Industrial Zone industrial layout and thecollaborative study port logistics development, logistics information development research ofGuangzhou port, and high-end service industry development research, etc.Through above research, this paper Put forward for strengthening of port and citylogistics channel planning, urban economy development level, port logistics and the use ofNansha district, Guangdong free trade policy support, such as port and the city’s economicdevelopment from the perspective of government level; this paper also put forward forenhance the level of information logistics value-added services, such as, some strategies tosupport regional economic development from view of Participate in the port logisticsoperators point.First, this paper expounds the basic characteristics, connotation of port logistics and themain influence factors, the development of port logistics at home and abroad, also presentsthe basic trend of development of the port logistics and situation. based on thisinfrastructure, navigation, policy environment, route layout, port management and otheraspects, this paper has analyzed Guangzhou port logistics development status, points out theproblems existing in the Guangzhou port logistics.Second, this paper will forecast the foreign trade container-throughput of Guangzhouport adopt the hinterland generating method, and then, using the time series prediction methodto forecast the domestic trade volume. Thus, obtain the conclusion of logistics aggregatedemand of Guangzhou port. Among them, first, using the hinterland generating method toforecast foreign trade container quantity, and then the use of network flow model for eachregion to the matching ratio of the quantity of Guangzhou port, then thus calculate the foreigntrade container throughput across Guangzhou port. Finally, this paper puts forward the development countermeasures for logisticsdevelopment of Guangzhou port. mean while, provides a certain reference value to other portlogistics development, the author hope this paper will play a certain role on the transformationof Guangzhou port logistics development and transformation-upgrading in Guangzhou.