Study On Oil Spill Risk Assessment On The Sea Of Port Oil Reserve Base

Oil has great importance for the countries in the world as a strategic reserve, with the rapid development of our country’seconomy,our country has built lots of large-scale oil reserve base. Due to the advantage of maritime transportation, most of the oil reserve base distribute in the coastal port, and the number of oil wharfs and oil throughput increases, which lead to the incidence of oil spill more and more high, and seriously contaminate the port environment and the marine living resources, intensify the oil spill risk of the ocean in our country, and make the prevention and emergency mission of oil spill extremely arduous. Therefore, it is very important to take the oil spill risk of the port oil reserve base as a system to qualitative or quantitative evaluation analysis and formulate prevention measures and establish emergency system.By means of the analysis of oil spill incident materials at home and abroad, this thesis summarized the main reasons of the oil spill, so we obtain three forms of oil spill incident in port oil reserve base:oil tank, oil pipeline and oil wharf, analyze the key factor of oil spill accident, and identify the risk resources and harmful consequence of oil spill, then construct the risk evaluation index system. Firstly, we introduce the theoretical basis, evaluation methods, evaluation model building of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, and use this method to construct oil spill probability and the harmful consequences evaluation model of port oil spill reserve base, take Dalian new port as an example to comprehensive evaluation of oil spill risk. Among them, we calculate and analyze the weight and membership degree through issuing questionnaires to Dalian new port staff combined with analytic hierarchy processand membership function to determine the size of its impact. Then, we study the quantitative of oil spill risk, using the mathematical probability formula to calculate probability of main factors that cause the oil spill accident, on the basis of the main risk factors characteristics calculating the oil spill volume. Finally, we according to the possibility and the harmful consequences of oil spill to determine oil spill risk grade, put forward the oil spill prevention measures and emergency system of port oil reserve base, and to serve as a reference and application for management department.