Research On Railage Demand Analysis And Train Operation Plan Of Yun-san Line

Railway has been in a large-scale development and improvement as the economic growing. Since the 1990 s, six major reforms of the railway have been completed and mainly in those aspects: enhancing train types, increasing train speed, expanding railway construction(new line, double line, passengers dedicated line), diversified transportation(intercity trains,morning-evening trains, evening-morning trains). And the growing new lines realized local railway network and reasonable organization of train diagrams.This paper discusses the new Yun-san line(Yuncheng to Sanmenxia) in the following four aspects:First, we do some basic research of circumstances along the Yun-san line. Through discussing the economic characteristics, transportation networks and development trend, we can conclude the necessity of the Yun-san railway construction and the benefit of the local transport situation and economics.Secondly, we forecast the passenger and cargo volume of the Yun-san line by using the traditional four phase idea: grey model, gravity model, Logit model and suitability analysis in the data predict process. The trend of the passenger and cargo volume is predicted by function model and increasing rate method, and the plan of the passenger and cargo volume is predicted by grey model; the trend of the passenger and cargo volume is predicted by gravity model and its advanced model; the transformation of the passenger and cargo volume is predicted by Logit model and its advanced model; the prediction of the above three is predicted at last.Thirdly, we discuss the train operation plan of the Yun-san line according to the second part. The operation can be made by the study of the second factors.Finally, we establish cellular automata model and simulate the train operation plan,studies, respectively, the relationship between station space and the arrival and departrue of trains, then gradually adjusting the parameters to conform to the actual situation of the lines,to obtain theoretical data that can guide organization of the train operation plan of Yun-san line.This paper is based on the actual Yun-san operation and can be the scientific theory of the Yun-san line. Moreover, it is also suitable for the Yun-san operation after it is established.