Study On Risk Assessment Of Air Traffic Real-time Operation

Currently, service level of ATS(Air Traffic System) in our country lags behind fastdevelopment of civil aviation,which leaves ATS facing great challenges of safety andthe operational risk of system increasing. Therefore, evaluating the safety level of ATSoperation is more desirable than before. Methods at present used for evaluating ATS risklevel is incident investigation or organizing professionals to assess.Therefore, there islack of research on ATS real-time operation risk assessment. The paper studied riskassessment of ATC real-time operation and was composed of three following part:Firstly,the paper studied the fundamental basic theories of risk management andATS.With consideration of man, machine, environment and management the fourmodules,46initial index were selected through compositing confidential ATS reportingsystem,consulting professionals and conducting questionnaire survey. Differences in12indexes between approach control and area control were found by analyzing thequestionnaire data, therefore index system, satisfying request of real-time riskassessment, of approach control and area control were established respectively.Secondly, through comparing and analyzing several assessment method of indexsystem, the paper used fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(Fuzzy-AHP) to construct ATSreal-time risk assessment model that can figure out four risk values including risk valueof single index, risk value of kinds of index, risk value of index system and risk value ofATS operation.Lastly, took Ximen ATS as an example of risk assessment applying index systemand risk assessment model the paper established, which showed that the safety conditionof approach control was in medium state of safety and area control was in the transitionfrom medium to high risk. Rightness of risk value figured were verified using XimenATS safety assessment report that was published authoritatively and collecting feedbackfrom Xiamen ATS professionals. Through verification and feedbacks from professionals,index system and risk assessment model the paper established were relatively effective,based on which a simulation system of ATS real-time assessment was developed to assess the risk of Xiamen approach dynamically. The simulation system consisted ofmodule that simulated risk value of index, module that realized assessment model andmodule that showed the output of assessment. The result of dynamic assessment isrelatively approximate to safety state of Xiamen approach. The study of the paper showsthat index system and risk assessment model the paper can almost satisfy the needs ofATS real-time risk assessment by verifying statically and dynamically.