Jinbao Forecasting Methods And Apply On The Intercity Passenger Traffic

The Intercity passenger-dedicated line is the significant infrastructure in the processing of the urban agglomeration and the bond of the urban cluster changes. It also has a profound impact on the development of the urban and the construction of the whole system works. The forecast of the passenger flow is the basis for the inter-city railway construction, only the demand of the passenger flow reaches the certain standard can the construction be built. The forecast is not only an important indicator of the capital cost and operating cost, but also a key factor for setting the passenger train program. Currently, the practical application of four-stage method is relatively common, its theoretical approach also won the widely recognition, so this method is also applied into the traffic forecast of Tianjin-Baoding intercity railway.Firstly, the paper makes an analysis about both of the concept and the feature of passenger-dedicated line and the characteristics of the traffic; Then, compare the domestic method of the intercity traffic forecasting with the one of abroad. Based on the achievements, get the prediction method which is suitable for our country; Finally, this paper studies the Tianjin-Baoding intercity railway. Following the status OD investigation and considering the economic and traffic conditions along the intercity areas, the paper forecasts the passenger flow of the intercity line by using the four-stage method and selecting the appropriate models and methods. The study includes that the passenger trip generation, distribution and mode split, etc. Execpt that, the paper forcasts the trend traffic, the induced traffic and the contributory traffic using TransCAD. For the parameters of the prediction model, the paper gets them by using SPSS or referencing the values of the similar projects. After the traffic forecasts, the predict results are summarized and got into intercity traffic throughout the day, get off the main indicators such as passenger traffic and the largest cross-section of each station throughout the day, so as to provide a theoretical basis through developing scientific and rational operating strategy.