The Theory And Method Research Of Intercity Passenger-Dedicated Line Passenger Volume Forecast

The intercity passenger-dedicated line is one of the significant infrastructures in the planning of urban agglomeration, which will have far-reaching influence to the whole arrangement and development model, and its construction will be a systems engineering with broad affect and strong comprehensiveness. Moreover, the forecasting of passenger volume is the initial and basic work in the passenger-dedicated line's planning and construction. Passenger volume is the foundation of line's technical standards and equipment quantities, the key of project benefits, and the important basis of the programming of transportation pattern and organization scheme. Therefore, it has great significance to forecast it by a scientific and rational way. The thesis aims at establishing a passenger flow forecasting manner for the intercity passenger-dedicated line which fit for our national conditions, and offering some reference and basis to the decision of its construction.Above all, the intercity passenger-dedicated line is discussed in detail, including the explanation of its concept and characteristics, the analysis of passenger flow's generation mechanism, traits and influencing factors. And then, its functions and orientations are analyzed through the relationships between the intercity passenger-dedicated line and other traffic modes. Afterwards, some forecasting methods of passenger transport volume are introduced and compared, which are widely used home and abroad, and their shortages and limits are pointed out. The thoughts of present forecasting methods are accepted, and some improvements are made as well. Based on four-stage predict method, a new method is proposed, which takes the stage predict method as the progress, the two-stage division predict method as the subject. The amelioration of the new method is that, making the pre-partition first, and the unions distribute partition followed, which joint with the operating organizations, considering the corporation and competition among all the public traffic means, and presenting the thought of repeated allotment validation. Besides, in order to make the result close to the reality, the predict means and models in every stage are improved. In the end, the paper applies this method to the intercity passenger-dedicated line in Chengdu & Chongqing Economic area, verifies the feasibility and rationality of the forecasting model further, and offers some support and reference to the decision of this passenger-dedicated line's construction.