Study Of Population Projection Method In Master Plan For Small Town

Nowadays urbanization tide surging, the development of small towns has attractedmuch attention. Predicting the population scale of small towns scientifically andreasonably is not only an important problem of urban development in the process ofurbanization, but also one of the fundamental work in the general plan of small town,which plays a key role in the allocation of resources. In this paper, many populationforecasting methods for small towns are analyzed; the principle, applicable scope andstage are studied. Under the theory of regional development with population, resource,environment, development coordination and theory of optimum population, theinfluence mechanism of population development of small towns is discussed, the basicprinciples in selecting method is put forward.With SPSS statistical software and statistical analysis, population, resources,environment and development conditions of45small towns in Huainan City has beenjudged by an objective means. Then, through the development index classificationsystem, the correlation indexes are studied and the selected town samples are clusteredinto three categories. Finally, determine the applicable population prediction methodfor each type of small towns after the analysis of their growth characteristics.The paper also conducted an investigation in Shangyao town, Huainan, as anempirical study on population forecast. In terms of the survey on population, economy,public resources, the method of comprehensive growth, time series and environmentalenvironment capacity are carried out on the population projections, getting satisfactoryprediction accuracy. The way of choosing population prediction method, reasonablyand scientifically, for small towns is further discussed, enhancing the practicality ofurban population prediction methods.